30-year mortgage rate this week — Above 7.21%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-01T15:59 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 14d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey national average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for the week ending October 1, 2026 (published on October 1, 2026 at 12:00 p.m. ET) is above 7.21%.
Named authority. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS)
Form the evidence must take. The first published value by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for the week of October 1, 2026, published on Thursday at 12:00 p.m. ET. Subsequent corrections or revisions made after expiration do not count.
Does not count.
- Subsequent corrections or revisions made after the expiration of the market
- Rates from other sources (e.g., MBA, Bankrate, Zillow)
- Rates for other mortgage types or terms
Deadline. 2026-10-01T12:00:00Z (publication time on Thursday, October 1, 2026)
- above — strictly greater than 7.21%
- 30-year fixed-rate mortgage national average — the weekly average published by Freddie Mac in its PMMS
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
As of September 30, 2026, the named Freddie Mac PMMS release for October 1, 2026 has not yet been published, so the condition cannot be resolved now.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The contract requires Freddie Mac's PMMS national average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for the week ending October 1, 2026, published October 1, 2026 at 12:00 p.m. ET. The available sources show the prior PMMS reading (7.03% as of September 24, 2026) and some secondary reports of higher rates, but no official Freddie Mac PMMS publication for the October 1, 2026 week exists yet.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
Freddie Mac's official PMMS release on October 1, 2026 at 12:00 p.m. ET showing the national average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for the week ending that date; if it is strictly above 7.21%, the market resolves yes, otherwise no.
Sources it was read from · 1 cited
7 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 13d ago · retrieval: newsrag, pg search. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.