Politics, elections, economics
Kalshi contracts on politics, elections and the economy, collapsed onto claims rather than contracts and tracked continuously. Prices are what people are betting, not what is true.
Sections
Economics 1,357 claims 368 moves/h · $8.7M
Elections 19,633 claims · 113 at several sources 123 moves/h · $146.9M
Politics 1,073 claims · 64 at several sources 61 moves/h · $12.0M
Highest volume
- 90% Which party will win the U.S. House? — Democratic Party $17.2M
- 56% Los Angeles Mayor winner? — Nithya Raman $11.3M
- 44% Los Angeles Mayor winner? — Karen Bass $8.2M
- 64% Texas Senate winner? — James Talarico $6.5M
- 96% California Governor winner? — Xavier Becerra $6.3M
- 36% Texas Senate winner? — Ken Paxton $6.2M
- 62% Which party will win the U.S. Senate? — Democratic Party $3.9M
- 10.0% Which party will win the U.S. House? — Republican Party $3.7M
Biggest shifts
- -54pt MN-01 House election: Brad Finstad vote percent — At least 5 0.735→0.2
- +52pt Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026? — 8.4% 0.39→0.905
- -48pt Generic congressional ballot on Oct 14, 2026? — Below 8.1% 0.5→0.015
- -48pt Generic congressional ballot on Oct 14, 2026? — 8.2% 0.5→0.015
- -48pt Generic congressional ballot on Oct 14, 2026? — 8.3% 0.5→0.015
- -48pt Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026? — 8.4% 0.5→0.015
- -48pt Generic congressional ballot on Oct 12, 2026? — 8.5% 0.5→0.015
- -48pt Generic congressional ballot on Oct 13, 2026? — 8.6% 0.5→0.015
Closing soon
- 68% CPI in September — Above 0.5% 2026-10-14
- 50% Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.6% 2026-10-14
- 78% CPI core in September — Above 0.1% 2026-10-14
- 45% Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2. 2026-10-14
- 18% CPI in September — Above 0.6% 2026-10-14
- 36% CPI in September — Above 0.2% 2026-10-14
- 40% September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core — Headline: 2026-10-14
- 38% CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026? — Exactly 3.7% 2026-10-14
New markets
- EV commodity prices on Oct 14, 2026 — Above 1133.98 ↗ closes 2026-10-15 $1.0k
- EV commodity prices on Oct 14, 2026 — Above 1143.98 ↗ closes 2026-10-15 $1.0k
- Generic congressional ballot on Oct 14, 2026? — 8.2% ↗ closes 2026-10-14 $418
- Next French presidential election winner? — Raphaël Glucksmann ↗ closes 2028-05-30 $231
- Who will be arrested in 2026? — Ilhan Omar ↗ closes 2027-01-01 $218
- Israeli Parliamentary Election: 4th Place — Yisrael Beiteinu ↗ closes 2027-10-27 $112
- Israeli Parliamentary Election: 4th Place — Otzma Yehudit ↗ closes 2027-10-27 $79
- Generic congressional ballot on Oct 14, 2026? — 8.4% ↗ closes 2026-10-14 $45
Books just opened
- 50% CPI in September — Above 0.2%
- 50% Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.2%
- 50% Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.2%
- 3.0% Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.8%
- 3.0% Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.8%
- 3.0% Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.8%
- 3.0% Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.8%
- 78% North Carolina Senate General Election: voter turnout — Abov
Recently adjudicated
Nothing adjudicated yet. Readings need sources from outside the
market before they can run.