US gas prices tomorrow — Above 4.4850
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-26T03:59 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
The evidence appeared before the market moved. the evidence appeared before the market moved.
- Price reached near-certainty: 18d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-09-24T15:04:31
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The average regular gas price for the United States, as reported by AAA, is strictly greater than $4.4850 on September 26, 2026.
Named authority. AAA
Form the evidence must take. According to AAA's published data, typically on its website (gasprices.aaa.com) or in official reports. The rules require 'according to AAA'.
Does not count.
- Prices from any source other than AAA, estimates or forecasts not based on AAA's official published data.
Deadline. 2026-09-26
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
The condition is for September 26, 2026, but no evidence shows AAA's official average for that date. The available sources are from previous days and report prices around $4.48, not above $4.4850, and none are from AAA itself.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The contract requires the average regular gas price as reported by AAA, typically on gasprices.aaa.com or official reports. None of the sources are from AAA's official website or reports; they are news articles quoting AAA or other sources. No source provides AAA's published figure for September 26, 2026.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
AAA's official published data (e.g., on gasprices.aaa.com) for September 26, 2026, showing the national average regular gas price strictly greater than $4.4850.
Sources it was read from · 2 cited
6 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 18d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.