← Decided
Gas prices in the US in Sep 2026? — Above 4.30
kalshi · open the market ↗
· closes 2026-09-30T03:59 · claim page
undecided
high confidence
not the named source
buy YES
price moved
60 → 94
in the last 48h
bid 0.940 / ask 0.950
5.0c residual
Was there ever a window?
No — the market moved before the evidence.
the market reached near-certainty BEFORE the earliest cited source, so there was no window: the price moved first.
- Price reached near-certainty:
26d ago
- Earliest cited source published:
2026-09-17T23:05:42
- Price as shown:
not current — not adjudicated.
The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The average regular gas price for the United States is strictly greater than $4.30 on September 30, 2026, as reported by AAA.
Named authority. AAA
Form the evidence must take. The evidence must be the published figure from AAA (American Automobile Association) for the national average regular gas price on that date. The rules state 'according to AAA', so the official AAA report or data page is required.
Does not count.
- Any price not sourced from AAA
- Any price for a different fuel grade (e.g., premium, diesel)
- Any price from a different date or averaged over a period
Deadline. 2026-09-30
- average regular gas prices — the national average price for regular grade gasoline in the United States, as reported by AAA
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the
condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
As of mid-September 2026, news reports citing AAA put the U.S. national average regular gas price around $4.43–$4.48, but no source establishes the September 30, 2026 AAA figure.
The resolution date is September 30, 2026, and today is September 23, 2026, so the condition cannot yet be confirmed or refuted. The cited prices are from mid-September and do not establish the September 30 average.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires.
The rules require the official AAA published national average regular gas price for September 30, 2026. The available sources are news articles citing AAA on other dates, not the official AAA figure for the resolution date.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that
alone.
The named authority has not established this.
The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
AAA's official published national average regular gas price for September 30, 2026, showing whether it is strictly above $4.30, would settle this market.
Sources it was read from · 5 cited
AAA: National gas price climbs 16 cents in a week to $4.43 a gallon ↗
https://wrnjradio.com/aaa-national-gas-price-climbs-16-cents-in-a-week-to-4-43-a-gallon · 2026-09-18
The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline rose 16 cents over the past week to $4.43 as crude oil prices remained elevated, according to AAA. As of … The post AAA: National gas price climbs 16 cents in a week to $4.43 a gallon appeared first on WRNJ Radio .
Rising Gas Prices Frustrate Voters. Trump Says It’s an ‘Inexpensive Price to Pay’ for the Iran War ↗
https://uticaphoenix.net/rising-gas-prices-frustrate-voters-trump-cheap-price-for-iran-war · 2026-09-20
Rising Gas Prices Frustrate Voters; Trump: Cheap Price for Iran War – The national average price for regular gasoline hit about $4.48 per gallon in September 2026, up roughly 17 cents in a single week and more than $1.27 from a year earlier, according to AAA. President Trump has responded by calling higher pump prices […]
National gas price rises 16 cents in a week to $4.43 ↗
https://fingerlakes1.com/2026/09/17/national-gas-price-rises-16-cents-in-a-week-to-4-43 · 2026-09-17
The national average price for regular gasoline climbed 16 cents over the past week to $4.43 per gallon, AAA reported Thursday. The average is now more than $1 higher than it was a year ago and is approaching the 2026 high of $4.56 set May 21. The post National gas price rises 16 cents in a week to $4.43 appeared first on Fingerlakes1.com .
AAA: Gas Prices Keep Climbing as Crude Oil Remains High ↗
https://cerebral-overload.com/2026/09/aaa-gas-prices-keep-climbing-as-crude-oil-remains-high · 2026-09-22
Gas prices are 20 cents higher in Western Pennsylvania this week at $4.738 per gallon, according to AAA East Central’s Gas Price Report. Nationwide Trends:The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is up 16 cents from last week at $4.47 and more than one dollar higher than it was a year ago. Crude oil remains …
Why Is Gas So Expensive? 7 Things Driving Prices At The Pump Right Now ↗
https://hotspotatl.com/6823060/why-is-gas-so-expensive-right-now · 2026-09-18
If you are wondering why gas is so expensive right now, you are not alone. Drivers across the United States are feeling the pressure every time they fill up their tanks. As of Sept. 18, the national average for regular gasoline was around $4.46 per gallon, according to AAA. Diesel prices were even higher, reaching […]
3 retrieved but not cited
Gasoline prices ↗
By me the price of gas really jumped in the last week. AAA Fuel Prices Up 13 cents in a week. "September 10,2026 WASHINGTON, DC (September 10, 2026) – The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline went up 13 cents since last week to $4.27 as crude oil prices continue climbing...."
Gas jumps another $0.20 on average across western PA: AAA ↗
(WJET/WFXP)-- Gas prices across the western half of the Commonwealth have jumped once again, according to the latest report from AAA. AAA East Central said gas jumped an average of $0.20 to $4.738 per gallon across western Pennsylvania, with national gas prices going up $0.16 on average. While gas p
Adjudicated 20d ago · retrieval: newsrag.
This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named
authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.