polyrag

← Decided

US gas prices this week — Above 4.3600

kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-05T03:59 · claim page

undecided high confidence not the named source buy YES price moved 68 → 94 in the last 48h bid 0.940 / ask 0.950 5.0c residual

Was there ever a window?

Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.

What the contract requires

Condition. The average regular gas price for the United States, as reported by AAA, is strictly greater than $4.3600 on October 5, 2026.

Named authority. AAA

Form the evidence must take. The evidence must be the official average regular gas price for the United States published by AAA on or for October 5, 2026. The rules state 'according to AAA'.

Deadline. 2026-10-05

This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.

What the sources establish

The condition specifies the price on October 5, 2026, which is a future date relative to the current time and all evidence. No source reports the AAA national average for that date.

The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require the official average regular gas price for the United States published by AAA on or for October 5, 2026. The provided sources are news articles citing AAA for other dates, not the official AAA publication for October 5, 2026.

The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.

The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.

AAA's official publication of the national average regular gas price for October 5, 2026, showing it strictly greater than $4.3600.

Sources it was read from

8 retrieved but not cited
National gas price drops 7 cents after record-setting September, AAA says ↗
The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline dropped nearly 7 cents over the past week to $4.41, following a record-setting September at the pump, according to AAA. … The post National gas price drops 7 cents after record-setting September, AAA says appeared first on WRNJ Radio .
At the Pump: Gas Prices Rise as Trump Defends the Cost ↗
The average price of regular gas was $2.81 in January. That $2.81 price per gallon has increased 35-40% since the start of the year. The national average for a gallon of regular gas hit $4.48 in September. Amid the near seven-month war between the United States and Iran, President Donald Trump says
AAA Texas: Texas Records Most Expensive September Ever for Gasoline ↗
September Record, Still Below Texas’ All-Time High From June 2022 The statewide gas price average in Texas is $3.94 for a gallon of regular unleaded fuel, according to AAA Texas. That price is two cents less than on this day last week and $1.20 more per gallon compared to this day last year. Of the…
Gasoline prices ↗
By me the price of gas really jumped in the last week. AAA Fuel Prices Up 13 cents in a week. "September 10,2026 WASHINGTON, DC (September 10, 2026) – The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline went up 13 cents since last week to $4.27 as crude oil prices continue climbing...."
AAA: Michigan gas prices drop 24 cents ↗
DEARBORN – Gas prices in Michigan dropped 24 cents from last week. Michigan drivers are now paying an average of $4.69 per gallon for regular unleaded. This price is 43 cents more than this time last month and $1.65 more than this time last year. Motorists are paying an average of $70 for a full […]
Average gas price in LA County approaches all-time record high ↗
The average price of a gallon of self-serve regular gasoline in Los Angeles County was 10.6 cents from matching its record following an increase of 5.1 cents to $6.387, its highest amount since Oct. 10, 2022.
AZ Gas Prices Drop 1 Cent in Past Week ↗
10/2 AAA Arizona says the price for a gallon of regular gasoline dropped 1-cent this past week for a state average of $4.77 per gallon. Arizona motorists are paying 23-cents more than last month and $1.22 more than this time last year. Nationwide, the price for a gallon of regular gas dropped 7-cent
AAA reports national average gasoline price eased after record-setting September; price in N.J. slid 6 cents ↗
The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline dropped nearly 7 cents from last week to $4.41, according to AAA. This follows a record-setting September at the pump. The monthly average was $4.33, 50 cents higher than the previous September record of $3.83 set in 2023. Crude oil prices have s

Adjudicated 10d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.