US gas prices this week — Above 4.4000
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-05T03:59 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. we have no price history for this contract, so we cannot say whether the market moved before or after the evidence appeared.
- Price reached near-certainty: not recorded — we hold no price history for this contract, which is itself the reason the question cannot be answered
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-09-27T07:00:00
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The average regular gas price for the United States on October 5, 2026, as reported by AAA, is strictly greater than $4.4000.
Named authority. AAA
Form the evidence must take. AAA's official publication of the national average regular gas price for October 5, 2026, in any publicly accessible medium (e.g., their website, press release, or API). The rules state "according to AAA" but do not further specify the medium.
Does not count.
- Any price equal to or less than $4.4000
- Prices from sources other than AAA
- Prices for premium or diesel fuel
- State-level or regional averages
Deadline. 2026-10-05
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
Sources show AAA national average regular gas prices around $4.47–$4.49 per gallon in late September 2026, but no source establishes the October 5, 2026 national average.
The resolution date is October 5, 2026, and the current date is October 1, 2026. No evidence yet establishes the AAA national average for October 5, so the condition cannot be resolved as already met or already failed.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require AAA's official publication of the U.S. average regular gas price for October 5, 2026. The available sources are news articles and secondary reports citing AAA figures from late September, not AAA's official October 5 publication.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
AAA's official publication—on gasprices.aaa.com, a press release, or API—showing the U.S. average regular gas price for October 5, 2026, and whether it is strictly above $4.4000.
Sources it was read from · 2 cited
6 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 12d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.