polyrag

← Decided

US gas prices this week — Above 4.2800

kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-12T03:59 · claim page

undecided high confidence not the named source buy YES price moved 59 → 91 in the last 48h bid 0.910 / ask 0.920 8.0c residual

Was there ever a window?

The evidence appeared before the market moved. the evidence appeared before the market moved.

What the contract requires

Condition. AAA's average regular gas price for the United States is strictly greater than $4.2800 on Oct 12, 2026.

Named authority. AAA

Form the evidence must take. The evidence must be AAA's published average regular gas price for the United States for Oct 12, 2026 showing a value above $4.2800. The rules state the price is determined 'according to AAA' and must be 'strictly greater than $4.2800'.

Does not count.

Deadline. 2026-10-12

The venue's own resolution text, verbatim 
If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.2800 on Oct 12, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

What the sources establish

As of October 5-6, 2026, AAA-reported national average regular gasoline prices were around $4.36-$4.41 per gallon, above $4.2800, but no source reports AAA's U.S. average for October 12, 2026.

The resolution date is October 12, 2026, which is in the future relative to the current time and all cited evidence. No source establishes AAA's published national average for that specific date, so the condition cannot yet be considered met.

The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require AAA's published U.S. average regular gas price specifically for October 12, 2026, showing a value strictly above $4.2800. The available sources cite AAA figures for early October 2026, not for the resolution date.

The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.

The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.

A direct AAA publication or AAA-sourced report dated October 12, 2026 (or later) showing the U.S. average regular gas price for October 12, 2026, strictly above $4.2800.

Sources it was read from · 5 cited

Gas prices rising in San Luis Obispo County, find lowest costs ↗
https://calcoastnews.com/2026/10/gas-prices-rising-in-san-luis-obispo-county-find-lowest-costs-2 · 2026-10-04
By KAREN VELIE While California gas prices continued increasing last week, the average cost for gas in the United States began dropping. The average price for gas rose one cent to $6.56 a gallon in San Luis Obispo County last week, according to AAA. At $6.38, the average price for a gallon of gas is […]
October brings a dip in gas prices ↗
https://orleanshub.com/october-brings-a-dip-in-gas-prices · 2026-10-05
The average price of regular unleaded declined by 11 cents nationally to $4.36 today, while the average is New York State is down a penny to $4.47. A year ago, the average price was $3.13 nationally and $3.18 in NYS, AAA reported today. “After a record-setting September, the national average for a gallon of regular […] The post October brings a dip in gas prices first appeared on Orleans Hub .
National gas price drops 7 cents after record-setting September, AAA says ↗
https://wrnjradio.com/national-gas-price-drops-7-cents-after-record-setting-september-aaa-says · 2026-10-02
The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline dropped nearly 7 cents over the past week to $4.41, following a record-setting September at the pump, according to AAA. … The post National gas price drops 7 cents after record-setting September, AAA says appeared first on WRNJ Radio .
Nat. Avg. Gas Price Falls to $4.41 as Crude Oil Prices Ease ↗
https://woodallscm.com/nat-avg-gas-price-falls-to-4-41-as-crude-oil-prices-ease · 2026-10-05
The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline dropped nearly 7 cents from last week to $4.41, according to a press release from AAA. This follows a record-setting September at the pump. The monthly average was $4.33, 50 cents higher than the previous September record of $3.83 set in 2023. Crude oil prices have […] The post Nat. Avg. Gas Price Falls to $4.41 as Crude Oil Prices Ease first appeared on Woodall's Campground Magazine .
Gas prices Oct. 6 ↗
https://havasunews.com/gas-prices-oct-6/article_0b94a768-dfcd-403d-a380-d3a9c3b60e4d.html · 2026-10-06
National average: $4.37
3 retrieved but not cited
Pennsylvania gas prices up 37% from last year, AAA says ↗
(WHTM) -- The American Automobile Association (AAA) announced that the average price of regular gas in Pennsylvania has increased by more than a dollar per gallon in the past year. According to AAA, fuel prices in the Keystone State have continued to climb since last year. Today, the average fuel pr
AAA Texas: Texas Records Most Expensive September Ever for Gasoline ↗
The statewide gas price average in Texas is $3.94 for a gallon of regular unleaded fuel, according to AAA Texas. That price is two cents less than on this day last week and $1.20 more per gallon compared to this day last year. Of the major metropolitan areas surveyed in Texas, drivers in El Paso […]
AAA: Gas Prices Dipping Following Record-Setting September ↗
Gas prices have been coming back down, offering some relief for drivers. AAA reports that the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline dropped nearly 7 cents from last week to $4.41. This follows a record-setting September at the pump. The monthly average was $4.33, 50 cents higher than the

Adjudicated 7d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.