polyrag

← Decided

US gas prices this week — Above 4.3400

kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-12T03:59 · claim page

undecided high confidence not the named source buy YES price moved 19 → 96 in the last 48h bid 0.960 / ask 0.970 3.0c residual

Was there ever a window?

The evidence appeared before the market moved. the evidence appeared before the market moved.

What the contract requires

Condition. The market resolves to Yes if, according to AAA, the average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $4.3400 on October 12, 2026.

Named authority. AAA

Form the evidence must take. AAA's published average regular gas price for the United States on October 12, 2026 must show a value strictly greater than $4.3400. The rules require the price to be 'according to AAA' and do not accept other sources, estimates, or later revisions.

Does not count.

Deadline. 2026-10-12

The venue's own resolution text, verbatim 
If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.3400 on Oct 12, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

What the sources establish

The resolution date (October 12, 2026) has not yet occurred, and no evidence shows AAA's published price for that date. The condition cannot be already met or already impossible based on current data.

The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require AAA's published average regular gas price for the United States on October 12, 2026. All provided sources report prices on earlier dates (October 4–9, 2026) and none are the required AAA publication for October 12, 2026.

The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.

The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.

AAA's official published national average regular gas price for the United States on October 12, 2026, showing a value strictly greater than $4.3400 (for Yes) or less than or equal to $4.3400 (for No).

Sources it was read from · 3 cited

October brings a dip in gas prices ↗
https://orleanshub.com/october-brings-a-dip-in-gas-prices · 2026-10-05
The average price of regular unleaded declined by 11 cents nationally to $4.36 today, while the average is New York State is down a penny to $4.47. A year ago, the average price was $3.13 nationally and $3.18 in NYS, AAA reported today. “After a record-setting September, the national average for a gallon of regular […] The post October brings a dip in gas prices first appeared on Orleans Hub .
Gas Prices Down Slightly/Highest Fall Prices Ever ↗
https://myradioplace.com/gas-prices-down-slightly-highest-fall-prices-ever · 2026-10-09
10/9 AAA Arizona says the average for a gallon of regular gas in the state dropped by 6-cents this week for an average of $4.71 per gallon. The national average fell 5-cents to $4.36 per gallon. Both prices are record highs for autumn. Tucson has the lowest price in the state at $4.42 while Scottsdale has the highest price at $4.98 per gallon. EV charging had little change; it’s 41-cents nationally and 44-cents in Arizona.
AAA: Gas Prices Falling, But National Average Still at Record Autumn High ↗
https://wgmd.com/aaa-gas-prices-falling-but-national-average-still-at-record-autumn-high · 2026-10-08
Gas prices remain the highest they’ve ever been for this time of year. According to AAA, even though the national average dropped 5 cents this past week to $4.36, pump prices remain at record highs for autumn. This is the first year the national average has been above $4 per gallon in October. After dipping into the $80 per barrel range for several days, crude oil is back above $90 per barrel. Hurricane Isaias is another factor that could affect gas prices if oil production and refineries in the region are impacted. The Delaware gas price average is $4.19 today, down 13 cents in the last week and $1.29 higher than one year ago. The South Jersey gas price average is $4.20 today, down 9 cents
5 retrieved but not cited
Gas prices remain at record highs for October despite slight decline, AAA says ↗
Gas prices across the United States remain at record highs for this time of year, even as the national average declined slightly over the past week, according to AAA. As … The post Gas prices remain at record highs for October despite slight decline, AAA says appeared first on WRNJ Radio .
Average gas price falls ↗
TYLER — AAA Texas is reporting a seven cent drop in the state’s average gas price since last week, even as global oil prices rise amid the continued war with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. According to AAA Texas, the statewide average gas price is $3.87 a gallon for regular unleaded gasoline. This ma
Pennsylvania gas prices up 37% from last year, AAA says ↗
(WHTM) -- The American Automobile Association (AAA) announced that the average price of regular gas in Pennsylvania has increased by more than a dollar per gallon in the past year. According to AAA, fuel prices in the Keystone State have continued to climb since last year. Today, the average fuel pr
AAA: Michigan gas prices continue to decline ↗
DEARBORN – Gas prices in Michigan are down 22 cents from a week ago. Michigan drivers are now paying an average of $4.47 per gallon for regular unleaded. This price is 42 cents more than this time last month and $1.36 more than this time last year. Motorists are paying an average of $67 for […]
Nat. Avg. Gas Price Falls to $4.41 as Crude Oil Prices Ease ↗
The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline dropped nearly 7 cents from last week to $4.41, according to a press release from AAA. This follows a record-setting September at the pump. The monthly average was $4.33, 50 cents higher than the previous September record of $3.83 set in 2023. Cr

Adjudicated 4d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.