polyrag

← Decided

US gas prices this week — Above 4.3000

kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-14T03:59 · claim page

undecided high confidence not the named source buy YES price moved 18 → 90 in the last 48h bid 0.900 / ask 0.910 9.0c residual

Was there ever a window?

The evidence appeared before the market moved. the evidence appeared before the market moved.

What the contract requires

Condition. Average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $4.3000 on September 14, 2026, according to AAA.

Named authority. AAA

Form the evidence must take. The average regular gas price as reported by AAA (American Automobile Association) for that date. The rules state 'according to AAA', so AAA's published data (e.g., daily national average on their website or in their press releases) is the required evidence.

Does not count.

Deadline. 2026-09-14

This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.

What the sources establish

The condition specifies September 14, 2026, which is still in the future at the time of evidence (September 7-11, 2026). No evidence addresses the price on that date.

The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The resolution criteria require AAA's published data for September 14, 2026. The provided sources are news articles citing AAA for earlier dates, not AAA's official publication for the required date.

The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.

The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.

AAA's official national average regular gas price for September 14, 2026, published on their website or in a press release after that date.

Sources it was read from · 5 cited

AAA: National Average Gas Price Jumps 13 Cents in One Week ↗
https://rvbusiness.com/aaa-national-average-gas-price-jumps-13-cents-in-one-week · 2026-09-11
WASHINGTON, D.C. – The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline went up 13 cents since last week to $4.27 as crude oil prices continue climbing, according to a press release from AAA. Volatility in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed crude oil back in the $100 per barrel range for the first time […] The post AAA: National Average Gas Price Jumps 13 Cents in One Week first appeared on RVBusiness - Breaking RV Industry News .
National average gas price jumps 13 cents in a week to $4.27, AAA says ↗
https://wrnjradio.com/national-average-gas-price-jumps-13-cents-in-a-week-to-4-27-aaa-says · 2026-09-11
The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline climbed 13 cents in the past week to $4.27 as crude oil prices continued to rise, according to AAA. AAA … The post National average gas price jumps 13 cents in a week to $4.27, AAA says appeared first on WRNJ Radio .
National gas price jumps 13 cents to $4.27 ↗
https://fingerlakes1.com/2026/09/10/national-gas-price-jumps-13-cents-to-4-27 · 2026-09-10
The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline rose 13 cents in one week to $4.27, AAA reported Thursday. AAA tied the increase to rising crude oil prices as volatility in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil back to about $100 per barrel for the first time since July. The post National gas price jumps 13 cents to $4.27 appeared first on Fingerlakes1.com .
AAA: Delaware Gas Price Average Surges 34 Cents in One Week ↗
https://wgmd.com/aaa-delaware-gas-price-average-surges-34-cents-in-one-week · 2026-09-10
Gas prices have been rising significantly over the last several days. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline went up 13 cents since last week to $4.27 as crude oil prices continue climbing, according to AAA. Volatility in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed crude oil back in the $100 per barrel range for the first time since July. Pump prices are currently comparable to early June. The national average is increasing during a season when gas prices typically go down due to lower gasoline demand and the switchover to less expensive, winter blend gasoline (Sept. 15th). The Delaware gas price average is $4.32 today, up 34 cents in the last week and $1.18 higher than one year ago. The
Labour Day 2026 Gas Prices: Average Regular Fuel Hits Record High of $4.15 Amid Iran War Disruption ↗
https://peakoil.com/consumption/labour-day-2026-gas-prices-average-regular-fuel-hits-record-high-of-4-15-amid-iran-war-disruption · 2026-09-08
US motorists faced record Labour Day gasoline prices on Monday, 7 September, with AAA’s national average for regular gasoline reaching $4.1505 a gallon. The holiday price was nearly $1 higher than a year earlier as the conflict involving the United States and Iran continued to disrupt energy markets and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. […]
3 retrieved but not cited
AAA: Gas prices increase as crude oil returns above $100 ↗
As reported by AAA Texas’ Weekend Gas Watch, the average gas price across Texas was $3.83 per gallon for regular unleaded fuel on Thursday. This price is 14 cents more than it was last week and $1.07 more compared to the same day last year.
Gasoline, diesel continue to creep up ↗
DES MOINES - The price of regular unleaded gasoline rose 17 cents from last week's price and is currently averaging $4.06 across Iowa according to AAA. Crude Oil Summary • The price of global crude ...
Weekly Fuel Report ↗
DES MOINES — The price of regular unleaded gasoline rose 17 cents from last week’s price and is currently averaging $4.06 across Iowa according to AAA. Crude Oil Summary The […]

Adjudicated 32d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.