polyrag

← Decided

US gas prices this week — Above 4.4800

kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-28T03:59 · claim page

undecided high confidence not the named source buy YES price moved 45 → 91 in the last 48h bid 0.910 / ask 0.920 8.0c residual

Was there ever a window?

The evidence appeared before the market moved. the evidence appeared before the market moved.

What the contract requires

Condition. The market resolves to Yes if AAA's average regular gas price for the United States is strictly greater than $4.4800 on Sep 28, 2026.

Named authority. AAA

Form the evidence must take. AAA must publish/report the average regular gas price for the United States for Sep 28, 2026, and that reported price must be 'strictly greater than $4.4800' per the rules: 'according to AAA'.

Does not count.

Deadline. 2026-09-28

This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.

What the sources establish

News reports from Sept 20-25, 2026 cite AAA national regular gas averages around $4.47-$4.48 per gallon, but none report the Sep 28, 2026 average.

The resolution date (Sep 28, 2026) has not yet occurred as of the current time, and no source establishes AAA's reported national average for that specific date. Nearby prices around $4.47-$4.48 do not satisfy the strict 'greater than $4.4800' condition for Sep 28.

The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require AAA itself to publish/report the U.S. average regular gas price for Sep 28, 2026, and that reported price must be strictly greater than $4.4800. The available sources are news articles citing AAA for nearby dates, not AAA's official Sep 28, 2026 report.

The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.

The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.

AAA's official published national average regular gas price for the United States for Sep 28, 2026 — e.g., on gasprices.aaa.com or in an AAA press release — showing a price strictly greater than $4.4800. If AAA reports a price at or below $4.4800 for that date, the market would resolve No.

Sources it was read from · 5 cited

AAA says national gas average reaches $4.48 a gallon ↗
https://fingerlakes1.com/2026/09/24/aaa-says-national-gas-average-reaches-4-48-a-gallon · 2026-09-24
The national average price of regular gasoline reached $4.48 a gallon Thursday, nearly 5 cents higher than a week earlier, according to AAA. The group said that is the highest national average it has recorded for this time of year. The post AAA says national gas average reaches $4.48 a gallon appeared first on Fingerlakes1.com .
National gas price climbs to $4.48 a gallon, AAA says ↗
https://wrnjradio.com/national-gas-price-climbs-to-4-48-a-gallon-aaa-says · 2026-09-25
The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline climbed nearly 5 cents over the past week to $4.48, reaching its highest level on record for this time of … The post National gas price climbs to $4.48 a gallon, AAA says appeared first on WRNJ Radio .
Rising Gas Prices Frustrate Voters. Trump Says It’s an ‘Inexpensive Price to Pay’ for the Iran War ↗
https://uticaphoenix.net/rising-gas-prices-frustrate-voters-trump-cheap-price-for-iran-war · 2026-09-20
Rising Gas Prices Frustrate Voters; Trump: Cheap Price for Iran War – The national average price for regular gasoline hit about $4.48 per gallon in September 2026, up roughly 17 cents in a single week and more than $1.27 from a year earlier, according to AAA. President Trump has responded by calling higher pump prices […]
AAA: Gas Prices Keep Climbing as Crude Oil Remains High ↗
https://cerebral-overload.com/2026/09/aaa-gas-prices-keep-climbing-as-crude-oil-remains-high · 2026-09-22
Gas prices are 20 cents higher in Western Pennsylvania this week at $4.738 per gallon, according to AAA East Central’s Gas Price Report. Nationwide Trends:The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is up 16 cents from last week at $4.47 and more than one dollar higher than it was a year ago. Crude oil remains …
Gas jumps by 16 cents in US in past week with diesel up 28 cents ↗
https://orleanshub.com/gas-jumps-by-16-cents-in-us-in-past-week-with-diesel-up-28-cents · 2026-09-21
The average price for regular unleaded gas took another 16-cent jump in the past week to $4.47 a gallon, according to AAA. This is the second straight week regular unleaded week increased by 16 cents nationally. A year ago, the price was $3.18. The New York State average is $4.48, up 9 cents from last […] The post Gas jumps by 16 cents in US in past week with diesel up 28 cents first appeared on Orleans Hub .
3 retrieved but not cited
Gasoline prices ↗
By me the price of gas really jumped in the last week. AAA Fuel Prices Up 13 cents in a week. "September 10,2026 WASHINGTON, DC (September 10, 2026) – The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline went up 13 cents since last week to $4.27 as crude oil prices continue climbing...."
AAA: Michigan gas prices hit new 2026 high ↗
DEARBORN – Gas prices in Michigan are up 62 cents from last week, setting a new 2026-high. Michigan drivers are now paying an average of $4.93 per gallon for regular unleaded. This price is 72 cents more than this time last month and $1.75 more than this time last year. Motorists are paying an avera
US average reaches historic $6.51 per gallon, AAA says ↗
The average price of diesel fuel in the United States has reached a new all-time high of $6.51 per gallon, according to data published by the American Automobile Association (AAA) on Sept. 20.

Adjudicated 17d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.