Anthropic market share this week — Above 2.9%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-12T14:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
No — the market moved before the evidence. the market reached near-certainty BEFORE the earliest cited source, so there was no window: the price moved first.
- Price reached near-certainty: 6d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-10-08T03:15:43
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Anthropic's text market share by model author on OpenRouter for the week of October 5, 2026, as reported at 10:00 AM ET on the following Monday (October 12, 2026), is above 2.9% after rounding to one decimal place.
Named authority. OpenRouter (official chart)
Form the evidence must take. The market share value must be reported by OpenRouter in their official 'Text Market Share by Model Author' chart for the specified week, published at 10:00 AM ET on Monday. The rules state: 'based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Oct 5, 2026.' The value must be a numeric percentage rounded to one decimal place.
Does not count.
- If Anthropic is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is grouped under 'Others', the market resolves to No regardless of the actual share.
- Any reported value equal to or below 2.9% (i.e., 2.9% or less after rounding) results in No.
Deadline. Monday, October 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET (the time of the report)
- Anthropic — The model author entity named Anthropic, as listed on OpenRouter's market share chart.
- market share — The percentage share of text completions attributed to a model author, as reported by OpenRouter.
- week of Oct 5, 2026 — The seven-day period starting Monday, October 5, 2026 and ending Sunday, October 11, 2026.
- rounded to one decimal place — The reported percentage is given with one digit after the decimal point (e.g., 2.9, 3.0).
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
Sources report that OpenRouter data cited by WSJ showed roughly even business spending between OpenAI and Anthropic in September 2026, but none report Anthropic's text market share by model author for the week of October 5, 2026.
The resolution depends on an official OpenRouter weekly report that has not yet been published as of 2026-10-08, and none of the cited sources supply the required chart value. The market week is still ongoing, so the condition can be neither confirmed nor ruled out yet.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require OpenRouter's official 'Text Market Share by Model Author' chart for the week of Oct 5, 2026, published at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, October 12, 2026, with a numeric percentage rounded to one decimal place. The provided sources only discuss OpenRouter business-spending shares from September and do not provide the official weekly text market share chart.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
OpenRouter's official 'Text Market Share by Model Author' chart for the week of October 5, 2026, published at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, October 12, 2026, showing Anthropic's percentage rounded to one decimal place.
Sources it was read from · 3 cited
5 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 5d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.