Trump's approval rating on Oct 9, 2026? — 37.6 to 37.8
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-09T15:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 4d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The President's approval rating is between 37.6% and 37.8% at 11:00 AM ET on October 09, 2026, according to RealClearPolitics.
Named authority. RealClearPolitics
Form the evidence must take. The approval rating must be the value published by RealClearPolitics as of 11:00 AM ET on October 09, 2026. The rules state the rating must be 'according to RealClearPolitics', so the determining evidence is RealClearPolitics' published presidential approval rating at that exact time and date.
Does not count.
- The rating from any source other than RealClearPolitics.
- The rating at any time other than 11:00 AM ET on October 09, 2026.
- A rating outside the 37.6–37.8% range, even if close.
- Trump's approval rating if he is not the President at that date (because the rules refer to 'the President').
Deadline. 2026-10-09T11:00:00-04:00
- President — The officeholder of the U.S. Presidency at the time (the rules refer to 'the President's approval rating', not explicitly to Trump, despite the claim's wording).
- approval rating — The presidential job approval rating as tracked and published by RealClearPolitics.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
No evidence from the named authority (RealClearPolitics) is present in the supplied sources, and the deadline has passed. Without RealClearPolitics' published value, it cannot be determined whether the condition was met.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The resolution requires the approval rating to be the value published by RealClearPolitics as of 11:00 AM ET on October 9, 2026. None of the provided sources are from RealClearPolitics or cite RealClearPolitics' published figure for that date and time.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A publication from RealClearPolitics showing the presidential approval rating as of 11:00 AM ET on October 9, 2026, specifically whether it falls between 37.6% and 37.8%.
Sources it was read from
8 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 4d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.