Trump's approval rating on Sep 11, 2026? — 39.1 to 39.3
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-11T15:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 32d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The approval rating of the President (as defined by RealClearPolitics' averaging of polls) is between 39.1% and 39.3% at 11:00 AM ET on September 11, 2026, as reported by RealClearPolitics.
Named authority. RealClearPolitics
Form the evidence must take. RealClearPolitics must publish the approval rating on its website, with the value visible at the specified time. The rules say 'according to RealClearPolitics' and the market determines 'at 11:00 AM ET on September 11, 2026'.
Does not count.
- Any approval rating not published by RealClearPolitics
- Any rating for a person who is not the current President (if the market intended Trump but rules say President, then a rating for Trump if he is not President would not count per rules)
Deadline. 2026-09-11T15:00:00Z (11:00 AM ET)
- President's approval rating — The approval rating as computed and displayed by RealClearPolitics for the person who is President of the United States on September 11, 2026 (the market claim title references 'Trump', but the rules use 'President'; literal interpretation follows 'President')
- between 39.1 and 39.3% — Inclusive of both boundary values
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
The supplied evidence contains no material from RealClearPolitics and no approval figure that matches the required range; therefore the condition cannot be confirmed as met or failed.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require RealClearPolitics to publish the approval rating on its website at 11:00 AM ET on September 11, 2026. None of the provided sources are from RealClearPolitics, nor do they reference a specific numerical rating between 39.1% and 39.3% from RCP at the required time.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A direct screenshot or archived page from RealClearPolitics showing Trump's (or the President's) approval rating as 39.1–39.3% at 11:00 AM ET on 2026-09-11
Sources it was read from
8 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 32d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.