← Decided
Trump's approval rating on Sep 25, 2026? — 38.8 to 39.0
kalshi · open the market ↗
· closes 2026-09-25T15:00 · claim page
undecided
medium confidence
not the named source
buy YES
price moved
22 → 96
in the last 48h
bid 0.960 / ask 0.970
3.0c residual
Was there ever a window?
The evidence appeared before the market moved.
the evidence appeared before the market moved.
- Price reached near-certainty:
18d ago
- Earliest cited source published:
2026-09-22T01:00:27
- Price as shown:
not current — not adjudicated.
The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. RealClearPolitics reports that President Trump's approval rating is between 38.8% and 39.0% at 11:00 AM ET on September 25, 2026.
Named authority. RealClearPolitics
Form the evidence must take. The approval rating figure must appear 'according to RealClearPolitics' at 11:00 AM ET on September 25, 2026; a rating reported by any other source does not satisfy the condition unless it is the RealClearPolitics figure.
Does not count.
- Approval rating figures from sources other than RealClearPolitics
- A RealClearPolitics figure recorded at any time other than 11:00 AM ET on September 25, 2026
- Estimates, forecasts, or speculation about what RealClearPolitics will report
Deadline. 2026-09-25T11:00:00-04:00
- between 38.8 and 39.0% — the RCP-reported approval rating falls within that numerical range; inclusivity of the endpoints is not specified
- President's approval rating — not specifically defined in the rules; it is the approval rating shown according to RealClearPolitics
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the
condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
No evidence shows RealClearPolitics reporting President Trump's approval rating between 38.8% and 39.0% at 11:00 AM ET on September 25, 2026. The articles predate the deadline and rely on different polling sources.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires.
The resolution requires the RealClearPolitics-reported approval rating to appear at 11:00 AM ET on September 25, 2026. The supplied sources cite other polls (e.g., Reuters/Ipsos, Newsweek, American Research Group) and do not provide any RealClearPolitics figure for that exact time.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that
alone.
The named authority has not established this.
The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A realclearpolitics.com page or RCP-sourced report dated September 25, 2026 showing the approval rating figure at 11:00 AM ET falling between 38.8% and 39.0% would settle yes; a definitive RCP snapshot showing otherwise would settle no.
Sources it was read from · 5 cited
'Just a disaster!' Free-falling Trump approval astounds expert as 'very bad sign' emerges ↗
https://rawstory.com/trump-approval-2677924405 · 2026-09-23
President Donald Trump's sinking approval rating among wide swaths of voters astounded one analyst on Wednesday. Recent polling showed that Trump's approval rating among Republicans has sunk to 75% as of September, which is the lowest approval rating the president has recorded among his own party. That pales in comparison to the 25% approval rating that Trump has garnered from Independent voters, which is down from 43% in February 2025. David Chalian, CNN's Washington Bureau chief, was astounded by the new figures as he discussed them on "CNN News Central." "This is just a disaster right now!" Chalian said. One of the key drivers of Trump's free-falling approval rating is the economy , Chali
Reuters/Ipsos figures show Trump’s approval rate falling to 32% from Jan 25 rating of 47% ↗
https://indiainternationaltimes.com/politics/trump-approval-rating/15905 · 2026-09-22
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 32%, the lowest level of his political career, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll. The figure marks a 15-point decline from the 47% approval recorded shortly after his second inauguration in January 2025, with economic concerns and the war with Iran emerging as major issues in the […] The post Reuters/Ipsos figures show Trump’s approval rate falling to 32% from Jan 25 rating of 47% appeared first on India International Times .
Trump’s current economy approval rating is 22 points below first-term level, new poll finds ↗
https://wonderwall.com/politics/donald-trump-approval-rating-22-point-below-economy · 2026-09-24
Public frustration with President Donald Trump’s economic management is now evident in his approval rating. Recent data show that as voters remain concerned about the cost of living, Trump’s overall approval has reached its lowest point across both terms. These figures contribute to an already challenging political environment ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Donald...
Donald Trump's Approval Rating Falls Below 30% For First Time Ever (Dan Gooding/Newsweek) ↗
https://memeorandum.com/260921/p144 · 2026-09-22
Dan Gooding / Newsweek : Donald Trump's Approval Rating Falls Below 30% For First Time Ever — Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search. — President Donald Trump's approval rating dropped below 30 percent for the first time across both his White House terms Monday, as the midterms draw closer.
Trump’s approval plunges into the 20s ↗
https://blogforarizona.net/trumps-approval-plunges-into-the-20s · 2026-09-23
An American Research Group poll published this week found Trump’s approval at just 29 percent — a new low for his presidency and a flashing warning sign for the congressional Republicans being dragged beneath a growing Blue Wave. ► Trump’s dismal approval rating is lower than any other president since 1952. ◄ “Whatever truths we ... Read more
2 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 18d ago · retrieval: newsrag.
This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named
authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.