BTC price on Oct 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $83,000 or above
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-09T21:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
The evidence appeared before the market moved. the evidence appeared before the market moved.
- Price reached near-certainty: 7d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-10-04T10:15:08
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. This market resolves to Yes if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is above 82999.99.
Named authority. CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI); CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI)
Form the evidence must take. Evidence must be CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) data, specifically the 60 RTI prices collected in the last minute before expiration. The rules state: 'At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices.' The rules also state that the price used 'is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI)' and that 'Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same'—so Google, Coinbase, or other sources are not sufficient evidence.
Does not count.
- Google or Coinbase Bitcoin price data
- Any cryptocurrency price data from sources other than CF Benchmarks' BRTI/RTI
- A single price snapshot at exactly 5:00 PM EDT rather than the average of the 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT
- Prices collected outside the last minute before 5 PM EDT on Oct 9, 2026
- Any price observed after 5 PM EDT on Oct 9, 2026
Deadline. 2026-10-09T17:00:00-04:00
- BRTI — CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index
- RTI — CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index
- official and final value — the simple average of the 60 RTI prices collected in the last minute before expiration
- above 82999.99 — the average of the 60 BRTI prices must be greater than 82999.99, not equal to or below
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
The resolution time (2026-10-09 17:00 EDT) is still in the future relative to the current time, and none of the retrieved sources report the CF Benchmarks BRTI average for that minute. The evidence is about unrelated indices and markets, not this contract's condition.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require the simple average of the 60 CF Benchmarks BRTI/RTI prices collected in the last minute before 5 PM EDT on Oct 9, 2026. No source provides any CF Benchmarks BRTI/RTI price data for that time, and the current time is before the deadline.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A CF Benchmarks BRTI/RTI official data feed or publication showing the 60 one-second RTI prices for 16:59:00–17:00:00 EDT on 2026-10-09 and their simple average, or an official CF Benchmarks statement of that average, on or after 2026-10-09T21:00:00Z.
Sources it was read from · 4 cited
4 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 5d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.