polyrag

← Decided

BTC price on Sep 21, 2026 at 6am EDT? — $84,500 or above

kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-21T10:00

undecided low confidence not the named source buy YES price moved 6 → 91 in the last 48h bid 0.910 / ask 0.920 8.0c residual

Was there ever a window?

Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.

What the contract requires

Condition. The simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 6 AM EDT is above 84499.99 at 6 AM EDT on Sep 21, 2026.

Named authority. CF Benchmarks

Form the evidence must take. The official and final value is the average of 60 RTI prices collected from CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) during the last minute before expiration. The rules state: 'the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices.'

Does not count.

Deadline. 2026-09-21T06:00:00-04:00

This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.

What the sources establish

No evidence in the retrieved sources reports the actual CF Benchmarks BRTI average at the deadline, so the resolution condition is not established either way.

The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The market requires the official and final value to be the simple average of 60 RTI prices collected from CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) during the last minute before 6:00 AM EDT on Sep 21, 2026. The supplied sources only describe BRTI methodology; none provide the actual 60-second average or CF Benchmarks' official value at expiration.

The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.

The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.

CF Benchmarks' official BRTI data or published settlement value showing the simple average of the 60 one-second BRTI readings immediately before 6:00 AM EDT on Sep 21, 2026, and whether that average was at or above $84,500.00.

Sources it was read from · 1 cited

CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index - CF Benchmarks ↗
https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI
The CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) is a once per 200 millisecond benchmark index price for Bitcoin that aggregates order data from Bitcoin-USD markets operated by major cryptocurrency exchanges that conform to the CME CF Constituent Exchange Criteria. Calculated every second, it is the most precise source for Bitcoin pricing and the pre-eminent price benchmark for real time valuations ...
7 retrieved but not cited
CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate - CF Benchmarks ↗
The CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) is a once a day benchmark index price for Bitcoin that aggregates trade data from multiple Bitcoin-USD markets operated by major cryptocurrency exchanges that conform to the CME CF Constituent Exchange Criteria. Calculated every day since its launch on 14th No
CME CF Bitcoin Volatility Indices - CME Group ↗
About CME CF Bitcoin Volatility Indices Real-Time (BVX) Once a second benchmark that measures the 30-day constant maturity implied volatility of bitcoin using a standard variance swap pricing approach.
CF Benchmarks BRTI: Bitcoin Reference Rate for CME Futures ↗
The CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) is the most widely referenced Bitcoin price benchmark in institutional finance. It underpins CME Bitcoin futures, options contracts, and is used by ETF providers, index funds, and trading desks worldwide. Understanding how BRTI is calculated helps inv
PDF CME CF Cryptocurrency Reference Rates ↗
The calculation methodology immunizes CME CF Cryptocurrency Reference Rates to a high degree against price anomalies, while being replicable though spot trading on Constituent Exchanges.
Cf Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index Brti Calculation ↗
The CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) is a specialized financial metric designed to track the real-time performance of Bitcoin against a basket of cryptocurrency benchmarks. This calculator provides an accurate way to compute the BRTI based on current market conditions and your specific i
CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) Calculation ↗
Learn how to calculate the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) and understand its methodology for tracking Bitcoin's performance.
CF Benchmarks ↗
Regulated, benchmark-grade prices that on-chain applications can verify, not just trust. The same CF Benchmarks indices behind regulated futures and ETFs, now built to be checked by anyone who receives them using audited oracle infrastructure. CFB Oracle uses UK BMR regulated CF Benchmarks indices d

Adjudicated 22d ago · retrieval: pg search. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.