Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.2%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-11T12:25 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
No — the market moved before the evidence. the market reached near-certainty BEFORE the earliest cited source, so there was no window: the price moved first.
- Price reached near-certainty: 41d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-09-06T02:40:40
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy (Core CPI) increases by more than 2.2% in the twelve months ending August 2026, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Named authority. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Form the evidence must take. The one-decimal place value of the 12-month percent change in Core CPI for August 2026 must be reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its official CPI release (e.g., news release or database). The rules state: 'as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics'.
Does not count.
- Exactly 2.2% or less does not qualify as 'more than 2.2%'.
- Any value not reported by the BLS (e.g., estimates, preliminary data from other sources) does not count.
Deadline. The market resolves upon the release of the August 2026 Core CPI data by the BLS, typically in September 2026. In case of a government shutdown, the latest expiration date is extended to the sooner of the release of the underlying data or six months after the end of the shutdown.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy — Core CPI, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, excluding food and energy items.
- Source Agency — Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- Underlying — The Core CPI data for August 2026.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
The BLS has not yet released the August 2026 Core CPI data. All provided sources either discuss other countries' inflation, US jobs data, or forecasts, but none contain the official BLS figure required by the contract.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require the one-decimal place value of the 12-month percent change in Core CPI for August 2026 to be reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its official CPI release. No such release has occurred yet; the scheduled release is September 11, 2026.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
The official BLS news release or database entry for August 2026 Core CPI (All Items Less Food and Energy) showing the 12-month percent change to one decimal place, published on or before the market close.
Sources it was read from · 2 cited
6 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 34d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.