DeepSeek market share this week — Above 23.4%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-12T14:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
No — the market moved before the evidence. the market reached near-certainty BEFORE the earliest cited source, so there was no window: the price moved first.
- Price reached near-certainty: 6d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-10-08T07:34:32
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. DeepSeek's market share on OpenRouter text market share by model author for the week of Oct 5, 2026, as reported at 10:00AM ET on the following Monday, is above 23.4% when rounded to one decimal place.
Named authority. OpenRouter
Form the evidence must take. The market share values reported by OpenRouter at 10:00AM ET Monday, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Oct 5, 2026. DeepSeek must be separately identified in the source chart (not grouped under 'Others').
Does not count.
- DeepSeek not separately identified in the OpenRouter chart (e.g., included in 'Others') — in that case the market resolves to No, not Yes.
Deadline. 2026-10-12T10:00:00-04:00
The venue's own resolution text, verbatim
If DeepSeek scores above 23.4% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Oct 5, 2026. If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
What the sources establish
The deadline for the OpenRouter weekly report has not yet passed at the current time, and none of the evidence shows OpenRouter's reported DeepSeek share for the week of Oct 5, 2026. One article cites third-party estimates for a September week based on OpenRouter data, but that is neither the correct week nor the required OpenRouter report.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The contract requires OpenRouter's own published weekly text market-share-by-model-author report at 10:00AM ET Monday, Oct 12, 2026, with DeepSeek separately identified and rounded to one decimal place. The supplied sources do not include that OpenRouter report or any equivalent post-deadline OpenRouter chart.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
OpenRouter's published text market share by model author for the week of Oct 5, 2026, posted at 10:00AM ET on Monday, Oct 12, 2026, showing DeepSeek separately and its share rounded to one decimal place; that figure being above or not above 23.4% would settle the market.
Sources it was read from · 1 cited
7 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 2d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.