Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/25-10/2)? — Above 8.3%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-02T13:59 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 14d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. VoteHub’s 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is above 8.3% at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 2, 2026.
Named authority. VoteHub
Form the evidence must take. The resolving evidence must be VoteHub’s reported 2026 generic ballot margin, specifically the 'VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted)' figure as it stands at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 2, 2026. The rules do not specify a medium, but the margin must be VoteHub’s own published figure, not another poll or average.
Does not count.
- A margin of exactly 8.3% or less
- A generic ballot margin from any source other than VoteHub
- A margin measured at any time other than 10:00 AM ET on Oct 2, 2026
- A generic ballot margin that is not time-weighted
- A later revision of VoteHub’s margin after the specified time
Deadline. 2026-10-02T10:00:00-04:00 (10:00 AM ET on Oct 2, 2026)
- VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin — D − R, time-weighted, as reported by VoteHub
- above 8.3% — strictly greater than 8.3%; exactly 8.3% does not suffice
- time-weighted — as computed by VoteHub; the exact weighting formula is not specified in the rules
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
The deadline (Oct 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET) has not yet occurred, so it is impossible to determine whether the condition is met or not based on current evidence.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The condition requires VoteHub's own published figure of the time-weighted generic ballot margin at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 2, 2026. No evidence provides a VoteHub figure at that exact future time.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
VoteHub publishing its 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) as it stands at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 2, 2026.
Sources it was read from
8 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 13d ago · retrieval: newsrag, pg search. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.