Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/4-9/11) — Above 5.6%

kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-11T13:59 · claim page

undecided high confidence not the named source buy YES price moved 68 → 95 in the last 48h bid 0.950 / ask 0.960 4.0c residual

Was there ever a window?

The evidence appeared before the market moved. the evidence appeared before the market moved.

Price reached near-certainty: 34d ago
Earliest cited source published: 2026-09-03T22:45:08
Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.

What the contract requires

Condition. The market resolves to Yes if the VoteHub 2026 time-weighted generic ballot margin (D − R) is above 5.6% at 10:00 AM ET on Sep 11, 2026.

Named authority. VoteHub

Form the evidence must take. VoteHub's own published 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) as shown by VoteHub at 10:00 AM ET on Sep 11, 2026; the rules require the VoteHub margin itself to be above 5.6%, not a news report or third-party estimate of it.

Deadline. 2026-09-11T10:00:00-04:00

generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) — VoteHub's time-weighted generic ballot margin for 2026, calculated as Democratic support minus Republican support.
above 5.6% — strictly greater than 5.6 percentage points; exactly 5.6% does not satisfy the

This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.

What the sources establish

The evidence does not include any data from the named authority (VoteHub) showing the required margin at the specified time. The deadline has not yet passed, so the condition cannot be determined as already met or failed.

The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The contract requires VoteHub's own published 2026 time-weighted generic ballot margin (D−R) as shown at 10:00 AM ET on Sep 11, 2026. None of the provided sources contain VoteHub's data; they reference other aggregators or polls (e.g., Silver Bulletin, RealClearPolling, US Polling Data) or general news articles, none of which satisfy the required form.

The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.

The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.

VoteHub's own published 2026 time-weighted generic ballot margin (D−R) for Sep 11, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, showing a value strictly above 5.6%.

Sources it was read from · 3 cited

Democrats make sharp gains among Latino voters in battleground districts: Poll ↗

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6076556-democrats-gain-latino-voters-battleground-districts · 2026-09-08

A new poll found that Democratic candidates have made notable gains among Latino voters living in battleground House districts since 2024 — gains that could determine control of Congress next year. A new Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision poll shared with Axios shows that Democrats hold a 58 percent advantage on the generic congressional ballot among the fastest-growing swing…

Three Reasons Democrats May Not Have The Midterms In The Bag: Polling Bias, Polling Shifts, And Swing Voter Apathy ↗

https://dailytorch.com/2026/09/three-reasons-democrats-may-not-have-the-midterms-in-the-bag-polling-bias-polling-shifts-and-swing-voter-apathy · 2026-09-03

By Manzanita Miller With the midterm election two months away, Democrats are maintaining an advantage of over five points in the latest generic congressional ballot average — an average that includes both likely voters and U.S. adults depending on the survey — but there are reasons to [...] The post Three Reasons Democrats May Not Have The Midterms In The Bag: Polling Bias, Polling Shifts, And Swing Voter Apathy appeared first on Daily Torch .

Generic Congressional Ballot: Latest Polls | Silver Bulletin ↗

https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls

🕒 The latest on the generic ballot Updated September 9, 2026 The generic ballot hasn't seen much movement over the past month. Today, Democrats' margin is sitting at D +6.6. At the beginning of August, it was a nearly identical D +6.5. In other Silver Bulletin news, we launched our 2026 midterm election forecast this month. Check it out to see our predictions for every Senate, House and ...

5 retrieved but not cited

Roth ends campaign for U.S. Senate, clearing way for Risch vs. Achilles ↗

Democratic nominee will focus on 'helping Democrats win up and down the ballot'

Newsom rallies NC Democrats, urges focus on 2026 over 2028 ↗

California Gov. Gavin Newsom urged North Carolina Democrats to focus on state and down-ballot races in November rather than the next presidential election during a weekend swing through the Charlotte area.

Sen. John Fetterman's isolation from Democrats grows stark in Pennsylvania ↗

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Around this time two years ago, Sen. John Fetterman was in high demand on the campaign trail, going county-to-county in Pennsylvania to help Democrats up and down the ballot.

Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/4-9/11) Odds & Predictions ↗

Track what Kalshi's markets predict for "Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/4-9/11)", or trade it yourself.

Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/4-9/11) Odds | Kalshi ↗

As of September 7, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/4-9/11) are: Above 5.6%: 69%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.

Adjudicated 34d ago · retrieval: newsrag, pg search. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.