Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/18-9/25)? — Above 7.9%

kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-25T13:59 · claim page

undecided high confidence not the named source buy YES price moved 60 → 93 in the last 48h bid 0.930 / ask 0.940 6.0c residual

Was there ever a window?

The evidence appeared before the market moved. the evidence appeared before the market moved.

Price reached near-certainty: 20d ago
Earliest cited source published: 2026-09-22T00:58:00
Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.

What the contract requires

Condition. The VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is above 7.9% at 10:00 AM ET on September 25, 2026.

Named authority. VoteHub

Form the evidence must take. The margin as reported by VoteHub for its 2026 generic ballot, specifically the time-weighted D − R margin, at 10:00 AM ET on September 25, 2026. The rules do not specify a particular page or document, but the value must come from VoteHub's 2026 generic ballot margin.

Does not count.

A margin exactly equal to 7.9% (must be strictly above)
A margin from any source other than VoteHub's 2026 generic ballot
A margin observed after 10:00 AM ET on September 25, 2026

Deadline. 2026-09-25T10:00:00-04:00

generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) — The difference between Democratic and Republican vote share in VoteHub's 2026 generic ballot polling average, weighted by time so more recent polls count more heavily.

This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.

What the sources establish

The current time is before the deadline, and no evidence from VoteHub has been provided. All sources are from other polling organizations, not the required authority.

The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The resolution criteria require the margin to be reported by VoteHub for its 2026 generic ballot, specifically the time-weighted D−R margin at 10:00 AM ET on September 25, 2026. None of the provided sources are from VoteHub; they are from other pollsters (Echelon Insights, Quantus Insights, YouGov, NPR/PBS/Marist, Emerson College, etc.) and news articles summarizing various polls. No VoteHub data is presented.

The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.

The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.

A direct report or publication from VoteHub showing the time-weighted D−R margin for the 2026 generic ballot at 10:00 AM ET on September 25, 2026, with a value strictly above 7.9%.

Sources it was read from · 7 cited

Democrats Hold Solid Lead On Generic Ballot ↗

https://politicalwire.com/2026/09/23/democrats-hold-solid-lead-on-generic-ballot · 2026-09-23

A new Echelon Insights poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 51% to 43%. Generic Congressional Ballot Democrats 51% Republicans 43% Echelon Insights poll · likely voters · ±3.6%

Democrats Maintain Solid Lead on Generic Ballot ↗

https://politicalwire.com/2026/09/21/democrats-maintain-solid-lead-on-generic-ballot · 2026-09-22

A new Quantus Insights poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 50% to 42%. Generic Congressional Ballot Democrats 50% Republicans 42% Quantus Insights poll · likely voters · ±2.9%

Democrats Open Up Big Lead on Generic Ballot ↗

https://politicalwire.com/2026/09/22/democrats-open-up-big-lead-on-generic-ballot · 2026-09-22

A new The Economist/YouGov poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 52% to 38%. Generic Congressional Ballot Democrats 52% Republicans 38% The Economist/YouGov poll · likely voters

Democrats Expand Their Lead on the Generic Ballot ↗

https://politicalwire.com/2026/09/23/democrats-expand-their-lead-on-the-generic-ballot · 2026-09-23

A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 53% to 41%. Generic Congressional Ballot Democrats 53% Republicans 41% NPR/PBS News/Marist poll · registered voters · ±3.8% The same poll finds President Trump’s approval at 39%, while 53% disapprove. Trump Approval Approve 39% Disapprove 53% NPR/PBS […]

Democrats hold 11-point lead over GOP on congressional ballot: Poll ↗

https://phl17.com/nmw/democrats-hold-11-point-lead-over-gop-on-congressional-ballot-poll · 2026-09-24

Democrats hold a comfortable 11-point lead over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot, according to a new poll — the latest survey showing enduring Democratic momentum ahead of November.

Democrats Hold Double-Digit Lead on Generic Ballot ↗

https://politicalwire.com/2026/09/24/democrats-hold-double-digit-lead-on-generic-ballot-5 · 2026-09-24

A new Emerson College Polling poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 53% to 42%. Generic Congressional Ballot Democrats 53% Republicans 42% Emerson College Polling poll · likely voters · ±3%

Democrats Hold Wave-Sized Generic-Ballot Lead Ahead of 2026 Midterms ↗

https://timesng.com/31556.html · 2026-09-23

The 2026 midterm elections are just 43 days away. All key primaries have been decided. With summer officially over, the fall campaign is underway. So… The post Democrats Hold Wave-Sized Generic-Ballot Lead Ahead of 2026 Midterms appeared first on Timesng .

Adjudicated 19d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.