Google market share this week — Above 20.3%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-05T14:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 11d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Google's market share on OpenRouter text market share by model author for the week of September 28, 2026, as reported at 10:00 AM ET on the following Monday, is strictly above 20.3% after rounding to one decimal place.
Named authority. OpenRouter
Form the evidence must take. The official OpenRouter report published at 10:00 AM ET on Monday (the Monday after the week of Sep 28, 2026) showing the text market share by model author for that week, with Google's share listed separately and rounded to one decimal place. The rules state: 'based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Sep 28, 2026.'
Does not count.
- If Google's market share is not separately identified in the OpenRouter chart (e.g., included in 'Others'), the market resolves to No.
- If the report is not from OpenRouter or not for the specified week, the condition is not met.
Deadline. 10:00 AM ET on the Monday following the week of September 28, 2026 (i.e., October 5, 2026, assuming standard weekly reporting)
- Google — The model author 'Google' as identified in OpenRouter's text market share chart.
- market share — The percentage of text model usage attributed to a model author, as reported by OpenRouter.
- above 20.3% — Strictly greater than 20.3% after rounding to one decimal place (e.g., 20.4% or higher).
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
The deadline for the official OpenRouter report (October 5, 2026, 10:00 AM ET) has not yet passed, and none of the current sources are from OpenRouter or show Google's market share for the specified week.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require the official OpenRouter report published at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, October 5, 2026, showing Google's text market share rounded to one decimal place. None of the provided sources are from OpenRouter or contain that specific data.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
The official OpenRouter report published at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, October 5, 2026, showing Google's text market share for the week of September 28, 2026, rounded to one decimal place, with a value strictly above 20.3%.
Sources it was read from
8 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 11d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.