Google market share this week — Above 20.5%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-05T14:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 11d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Google's market share on OpenRouter text market share by model author for the week of Sep 28, 2026, as reported by OpenRouter at the 10:00AM ET Monday updated values and rounded to one decimal place, is strictly above 20.5%.
Named authority. OpenRouter
Form the evidence must take. OpenRouter's 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Sep 28, 2026; Google must be separately identified in the source chart and not included in 'Others.'
Does not count.
- Google is not separately identified in the source chart
- Google is included in 'Others' in the source chart
- Google's market share is exactly 20.5%
- Values not from OpenRouter's 10:00AM ET Monday updated report
Deadline. 2026-09-28T10:00:00-04:00
- Google — the named model author 'Google' in OpenRouter's text market share by model author
- text market share by model author — OpenRouter's reported share of text-model usage attributed to each model author
- above 20.5% — strictly greater than 20.5% after rounding to one decimal place
- separately identified — listed individually in the source chart, not included in 'Others'
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
No evidence in the supplied documents contains OpenRouter's reported Google market share for the relevant week, so the condition is neither confirmed nor refuted.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The resolution requires OpenRouter's own 10:00AM ET Monday updated text market-share-by-model-author values for the week of Sep 28, 2026, with Google listed separately and rounded to one decimal place. None of the provided sources shows that OpenRouter report or that specific value.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
OpenRouter's 10:00AM ET Monday updated market-share page/report for the week of Sep 28, 2026, explicitly listing Google separately with a rounded share value; if that value is strictly above 20.5%, the market resolves yes, and if it is 20.5% or below, it resolves no.
Sources it was read from · 1 cited
7 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 11d ago · retrieval: pg search. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.