Google market share this week — Above 20.8%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-05T14:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 11d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Google's market share (by model author) on OpenRouter's text market share chart for the week of Sep 28, 2026, as reported at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, is strictly above 20.8% when rounded to one decimal place.
Named authority. OpenRouter
Form the evidence must take. The market share values must be reported by OpenRouter in their official chart or data for text market share by model author, specifically the update at 10:00 AM ET Monday for the week of Sep 28, 2026. The rules state: 'resolved based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Sep 28, 2026.'
Does not count.
- Google's market share is not separately identified in the source chart (e.g., included in 'Others')
- The reported value is exactly 20.8% (not above)
- The value is from a different source or a different update time
Deadline. 10:00 AM ET Monday, September 28, 2026 (the start of the week of Sep 28, 2026)
- Google — model author (e.g., Gemini models) as identified in OpenRouter's chart
- above 20.8% — strictly greater than 20.8% after rounding to one decimal place
- week of Sep 28, 2026 — the seven-day period starting Monday, September 28, 2026
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
No evidence from the required authority (OpenRouter) has been provided; all sources are unrelated to OpenRouter's market share chart.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require OpenRouter's official chart or data for text market share by model author, updated at 10:00 AM ET Monday for the week of Sep 28, 2026. None of the provided sources are from OpenRouter or contain that specific data.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
OpenRouter's official text market share chart or data for the week of Sep 28, 2026, showing Google's model author share rounded to one decimal place, reported at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, Sep 28, 2026.
Sources it was read from
8 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 10d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.