Google market share this week — Above 21.4%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-05T14:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 11d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Google's market share on OpenRouter's text market share by model author chart for the week of September 28, 2026, as reported at 10:00 AM ET on the Monday following that week (October 5, 2026), rounded to one decimal place, is above 21.4%.
Named authority. OpenRouter
Form the evidence must take. The market share values must be reported by OpenRouter in their official chart at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, as stated: 'based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Sep 28, 2026.' The chart must separately identify Google as a model author; if Google is not listed separately (e.g., included in 'Others'), the market resolves No.
Does not count.
- Google's market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in 'Others'.
- The reported value is exactly 21.4% (not above).
Deadline. 10:00 AM ET on Monday, October 5, 2026 (the Monday after the week of Sep 28, 2026, when the updated values for that week are reported)
- Google — The model author named 'Google' as it appears in OpenRouter's text market share chart.
- above 21.4% — Strictly greater than 21.4% after rounding to one decimal place (i.e., 21.4% exactly does not count).
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
The deadline for the resolution data (10:00 AM ET on October 5, 2026) has not yet passed, and none of the supplied evidence comes from OpenRouter or reports Google's market share on the required chart. Therefore, the condition cannot be determined as already met or not met.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The resolution requires OpenRouter's official chart at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, October 5, 2026, with Google's market share rounded to one decimal place. None of the provided sources are from OpenRouter or contain that specific data.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
OpenRouter's official text market share by model author chart for the week of September 28, 2026, published at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, October 5, 2026, showing Google's market share value (rounded to one decimal place) and whether it is above 21.4%.
Sources it was read from
8 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 10d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.