Highest temperature in Chicago on Oct 9, 2026? — 73° to 74°
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-10T06:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
The evidence appeared before the market moved. the evidence appeared before the market moved.
- Price reached near-certainty: 4d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-10-04T04:23:49
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The maximum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Oct 9, 2026, is between 73 and 74 degrees Fahrenheit inclusive, as reported by The Weather Company.
Named authority. The Weather Company
Form the evidence must take. The official and final maximum/minimum temperature as reported by The Weather Company, specifically the non-preliminary publication (not preliminary data subject to rounding or conversion). The rule states: "the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company."
Does not count.
- Preliminary Weather Company data that is subject to rounding or conversion differences
- Data from any source other than The Weather Company (e.g., AccuWeather, Google Weather)
Deadline. the Expiration Date (not explicitly given in the provided rules, but refers to the market's expiration date set by Kalshi, with possible delay until a non-materially-erroneous data revision or the Expiration Date, whichever comes first)
- Chicago (CLIMDW) — the specific weather station identifier used by The Weather Company for Chicago
- maximum temperature — the highest recorded temperature for the day at the specified location
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
The provided evidence consists of unrelated weather forecasts and reports from other locations; none establish the maximum temperature in Chicago on Oct 9, 2026 per The Weather Company.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The contract requires the official and final maximum temperature for Chicago (CLIMDW) on Oct 9, 2026, as reported by The Weather Company, not preliminary data or other weather services. None of the retrieved sources report any Chicago temperature for that date, let alone The Weather Company's official final figure.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A report from The Weather Company, for station CLIMDW/Chicago, giving the official and final maximum temperature for October 9, 2026 as 73°F or 74°F — or as outside that range — before the applicable resolution deadline.
Sources it was read from · 8 cited
Adjudicated 4d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.