Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 3, 2026? — 99° or above
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-04T08:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
The evidence appeared before the market moved. the evidence appeared before the market moved.
- Price reached near-certainty: 10d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-10-02T12:38:00
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) on October 3, 2026, is greater than 98° Fahrenheit according to The Weather Company.
Named authority. The Weather Company
Form the evidence must take. The official final value as reported by The Weather Company, specifically the maximum/minimum temperature from their data. Preliminary data is not final; the status 'Final' on weather.com/kalshi is for convenience only and does not guarantee error-free data. The Exchange may wait for a non-materially-erroneous revision if a material error is found in the initial non-preliminary publication.
Does not count.
- Preliminary Weather Company data that may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value.
- Data from sources other than The Weather Company (e.g., AccuWeather, Google Weather).
- Data that is later determined to have a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, until a corrected revision is published.
Deadline. Expiration Date (not explicitly given in rules; likely the market's scheduled expiration, e.g., October 4, 2026, or after data publication). If no data is available by the Expiration Date, all markets resolve to the last fair price.
- Los Angeles (CLILAX) — The weather station identifier for Los Angeles used by The Weather Company.
- maximum temperature — The highest temperature recorded for the date as reported by The Weather Company.
- The Weather Company — The official source for the temperature data, distinct from AccuWeather or Google Weather.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
No evidence shows the actual maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) on October 3, 2026, from the required source (The Weather Company). Only indirect reports of heat advisories exist, which do not establish the specific temperature value.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The resolution criteria require the official final maximum temperature from The Weather Company for Los Angeles (CLILAX) on October 3, 2026. None of the provided sources cite or link to such data from The Weather Company.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A publication by The Weather Company (e.g., on weather.com/kalshi or their official data feed) showing the final maximum temperature for Los Angeles (CLILAX) on October 3, 2026, as being greater than 98°F (for 'already_yes') or less than or equal to 98°F (for 'already_no').
Sources it was read from · 8 cited
Adjudicated 9d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.