Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 22, 2026? — 89° to 90°
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-23T05:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 21d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The maximum temperature recorded at Miami (CLIMIA) on September 22, 2026, as reported by The Weather Company, is between 89 and 90 degrees Fahrenheit inclusive.
Named authority. The Weather Company
Form the evidence must take. The official and final value as reported by The Weather Company, specifically in a non-preliminary publication (e.g., on weather.com/kalshi or their official data feed). Preliminary data is not final; the market defers to the non-preliminary publication. If a material error is found in the initial non-preliminary publication, resolution may wait for a corrected revision.
Does not count.
- Preliminary or estimated data that is not the final reported value by The Weather Company.
Deadline. The event date is September 22, 2026. Resolution occurs once The Weather Company publishes non-preliminary data for that date; if a material error is found, resolution may be delayed until a corrected revision or the Expiration Date (typically the standard Kalshi market expiry), whichever comes first.
- Miami (CLIMIA) — The specific weather station designated as CLIMIA in Miami, Florida.
- between 89-90° fahrenheit — Inclusive range, i.e., 89°F ≤ maximum temperature ≤ 90°F.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
A prediction-market page reports that official National Weather Service observations from Miami International Airport (KMIA) recorded a daily maximum of 88°F on September 22, 2026, but no source from The Weather Company is provided.
The only directly relevant evidence is an 88°F reading attributed to the NWS, not to The Weather Company, and it appears on a prediction-market page rather than in The Weather Company's official non-preliminary data. The contract names The Weather Company as the sole authority, so this does not establish the resolution condition.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The contract requires the maximum temperature as reported by The Weather Company in a non-preliminary publication or official data feed. The evidence only cites National Weather Service observations via a prediction-market page, not The Weather Company's own non-preliminary publication.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A non-preliminary publication or official data feed from The Weather Company for the CLIMIA station on September 22, 2026, showing the daily maximum temperature. If it shows 89°F or 90°F, the market is already yes; if it shows 88°F or another value outside 89–90°F, the market is already no.
Sources it was read from · 1 cited
7 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 21d ago · retrieval: newsrag, pg search. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.