This Aug 2026 is the hottest August ever? — Hottest ever
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-16T03:59
Was there ever a window?
The evidence appeared before the market moved. the evidence appeared before the market moved.
- Price reached near-certainty: 37d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-09-05T06:39:52
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
The only claim that August 2026 was the hottest ever comes from an Indian news outlet citing IMD data, not from the global authoritative sources (e.g., NASA, NOAA, Copernicus) that would definitively establish the condition. Other sources are regional or irrelevant.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
Official global temperature anomaly data for August 2026 from a recognized authority such as NASA GISS, NOAA, or Copernicus Climate Change Service, published before the market close.
Sources it was read from · 1 cited
5 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 37d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.