Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) — Above 4
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-13T13:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
No — the market moved before the evidence. the market reached near-certainty BEFORE the earliest cited source, so there was no window: the price moved first.
- Price reached near-certainty: 11d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-10-08T11:41:12
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) — Above 4
The venue's own resolution text, verbatim
If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 4 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
What the sources establish
The contract's condition is poorly specified and no evidence establishes a clear peak traffic value above or below 4 for the given period; the week is still ongoing and sources only give partial or anecdotal data.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The resolution criteria are ambiguous ('Peak traffic ... Above 4' without defining traffic units or a named authority). No source provides a definitive peak traffic figure for the week 10/5-10/11, so the form required to settle the condition is not met.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A clear statement from a recognized shipping data source (e.g., Reuters, S&P Global, or the Persian Gulf Strait Affairs Authority) reporting the peak number of vessels or barrels transiting the Strait of Hormuz during 10/5-10/11, or a definitive halt announcement that makes traffic zero.
Sources it was read from · 2 cited
6 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 5d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.