Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/31 - 9/6) — Above 10
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-08T13:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 43d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/31 - 9/6) — Above 10
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
Sources show the Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked since February 2026 with tanker traffic dropping near zero early in the conflict, but none provide the actual traffic count for August 31-September 6, 2026.
The resolution period has ended but no source supplies the specific Hormuz traffic figure for 8/31-9/6, and the contract's named authority or exact unit of measure is not stated in the evidence.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A direct report from the contract's designated data source or official tracker (e.g., the daily AIS-based Hormuz dispatch) giving the actual number of transits through the Strait of Hormuz during 8/31-9/6 and showing whether that number was above 10, published before the contract's close.
Sources it was read from · 2 cited
5 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 37d ago · retrieval: pg search, wikipedia. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.