Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13) — Above 25
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-15T13:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
The evidence appeared before the market moved. the evidence appeared before the market moved.
- Price reached near-certainty: 32d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-09-08T04:45:03
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The sum of daily transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch for the period from September 7, 2026 to September 13, 2026 is above 25.
Named authority. IMF PortWatch
Form the evidence must take. Data published by IMF PortWatch, likely on their website or API, showing daily transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz for the specified dates. The rules state 'as reported by the IMF PortWatch'.
Does not count.
- Data from any source other than IMF PortWatch does not count
- A sum exactly equal to 25 does not count (must be above 25)
Deadline. Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period (September 13, 2026), once complete data is available
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
News reports citing Kpler data show daily commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz in single digits or low teens for some days in the Sep 7-13, 2026 period (e.g., 7 on Monday, 6 on Tuesday, 7 on Thursday), but no complete IMF PortWatch sum for the full period is shown.
The resolution period runs through September 13, 2026, and the current time is before that date; moreover, no IMF PortWatch data for the full period has been provided, so the condition cannot yet be established.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The contract requires the sum of daily transit calls 'as reported by IMF PortWatch.' The supplied sources cite Kpler ship-tracking data and news summaries, not IMF PortWatch published data, and the reporting period is not yet complete.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
IMF PortWatch publishing daily transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz for September 7-13, 2026, with the sum above 25 (or at/below 25), available by the Tuesday 9 AM deadline after the period ends.
Sources it was read from · 1 cited
7 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 32d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.