Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/21 - 9/27) — Above 10
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-29T13:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
No — the market moved before the evidence. the market reached near-certainty BEFORE the earliest cited source, so there was no window: the price moved first.
- Price reached near-certainty: 24d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-09-24T05:26:11
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/21 - 9/27) — Above 10
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
The resolution period (9/21 - 9/27) is still ongoing as of the current time (2026-09-24). Therefore, it is impossible to determine whether the week's traffic will ultimately be above 10. The evidence shows daily counts near 10, but the condition cannot be settled until the period ends.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The contract does not specify a required authority or form; the condition simply asks if traffic during 9/21-9/27 was above 10. The evidence shows traffic of around 10 ships on individual days, but the period is not yet complete (ends 9/27), so the condition cannot be fully established.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A source reporting the total or average traffic for the full period 9/21-9/27 after the period ends on 9/27, e.g., an official tally from a recognized authority like the PGSA or a reputable shipping data provider.
Sources it was read from · 2 cited
4 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 19d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.