Cleveland vs Tampa Bay: Spread — Cleveland wins by over 2.5 runs
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-16T00:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
No — the market moved before the evidence. the market reached near-certainty BEFORE the earliest cited source, so there was no window: the price moved first.
- Price reached near-certainty: 1d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-10-13T03:55:21
- Price as shown: not current — the venue is not quoting a live offer. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Cleveland wins the professional baseball game originally scheduled for Oct 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT against Tampa Bay by more than 2.5 runs, i.e., by at least 3 runs.
Form the evidence must take. unspecified
Does not count.
- Cleveland winning by 2 runs or fewer
- Tampa Bay winning or the game ending in a tie
- Any margin of exactly 2.5 runs, which is impossible with integer run totals
Deadline. 2026-10-12T20:00:00-04:00 (original game start)
- Cleveland wins by more than 2.5 runs — Cleveland's final score exceeds Tampa Bay's final score by more than 2.5 runs; because runs are scored as integers, this requires a margin of at least 3 runs.
The venue's own resolution text, verbatim
If Cleveland wins by more than 2.5 runs in the Cleveland vs Tampa Bay professional baseball game originally scheduled for Oct 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
What the sources establish
Cleveland Guardians defeated Tampa Bay Rays 7-3 in ALCS Game 1 on October 12, 2026, a margin of 4 runs.
Multiple sources report that Cleveland beat Tampa Bay 7-3 in the game scheduled for October 12, 2026. A 7-3 win is a margin of 4 runs, which is more than 2.5 runs and satisfies the spread condition.
Sources it was read from · 3 cited
5 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 39m ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.