Alabama vs Kentucky: Spread — Alabama wins by over 16.5 points
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-14T19:30 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
No — the market moved before the evidence. the market reached near-certainty BEFORE the earliest cited source, so there was no window: the price moved first.
- Price reached near-certainty: 31d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-09-13T06:57:37
- Price as shown: not current — the venue is not quoting a live offer. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Alabama wins the Alabama vs Kentucky college football game originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026 by more than 16.5 points, based on the official final result if the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time.
Form the evidence must take. The official final result of the game, as reflected in the final score. The rules state that if the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will 'resolve based on the official final result.'
Does not count.
- Alabama wins by exactly 16.5 points or fewer
- Kentucky wins or the game is tied
- Game is not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time (resolves to fair price, not Yes)
Deadline. Game originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026; if not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market resolves to a fair price instead of Yes/No.
- Alabama wins by more than 16.5 points — Alabama's final score minus Kentucky's final score is greater than 16.5, i.e., at least 17 points.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
Alabama defeated Kentucky 45-17 on September 12, 2026 in Lexington; margin of 28 points exceeds 16.5.
Multiple independent sources report the final score as Alabama 45, Kentucky 17, a 28-point margin, which is greater than 16.5. The game was played on its scheduled date, so the 48-hour postponement condition does not apply.
Sources it was read from · 3 cited
5 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 29d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.