UTEP vs Michigan: Spread — Michigan wins by over 27.5 points
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-21T19:30 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
No — the market moved before the evidence. the market reached near-certainty BEFORE the earliest cited source, so there was no window: the price moved first.
- Price reached near-certainty: 24d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-09-19T23:16:04
- Price as shown: not current — the venue is not quoting a live offer. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Market resolves Yes if Michigan wins by more than 27.5 points (i.e., by at least 28 points) in the UTEP vs Michigan college football game originally scheduled for Sep 19, 2026, based on the official final result, provided the game begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time.
Named authority. official final result of the game
Form the evidence must take. The official final result of the game (the final score) must show Michigan's margin of victory greater than 27.5 points. The rules state the market will 'resolve based on the official final result' if the postponed game begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time. No specific publication or agency is named.
Does not count.
- Michigan winning by exactly 27 points or fewer
- Michigan winning by 27.5 points (impossible in integer scoring; the threshold requires at least 28)
- A game that does not start within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start time (resolves to fair price instead of Yes/No)
- Media reports, predictions, or unofficial score estimates not constituting the official final result
Deadline. Within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start time on Sep 19, 2026; if the game has not started within 48 hours, the market resolves to a fair price.
- Michigan wins by more than 27.5 points — Michigan's final score minus UTEP's final score is greater than 27.5, meaning a margin of at least 28 points.
- originally scheduled for Sep 19, 2026 — The game's originally scheduled date; a postponement does not change this reference date.
- begins within 48 hours — The game starts within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time; if so, the market remains open and resolves on the official final result.
- fair price — Resolution outcome if the game is not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
Michigan defeated UTEP 52-17 on September 19, 2026, a margin of 35 points.
Multiple sources report the final score as Michigan 52, UTEP 17, giving a margin of 35 points, which exceeds 27.5.
Sources it was read from · 2 cited
6 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 22d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.