← Decided
Northwestern vs Indiana: Spread — Indiana wins by over 9.5 points
kalshi · open the market ↗
· closes 2026-09-28T00:00 · claim page
already no
high confidence
buy NO
price moved
87 → 8
in the last 48h
bid 0.080 / ask 0.100
8.0c residual
Was there ever a window?
Unknown.
we have no price history for this contract, so we cannot say whether the market moved before or after the evidence appeared.
- Price reached near-certainty:
not recorded — we hold no price history for
this contract, which is itself the reason the question cannot be answered
- Earliest cited source published:
2026-09-26T03:38:08
- Price as shown:
not current — the venue is not quoting a live offer.
The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The market resolves to Yes if Indiana wins the Northwestern vs Indiana college football game originally scheduled for Sep 25, 2026 by more than 9.5 points (i.e., by at least 10 points).
Form the evidence must take. The official final result of the game, as reflected in the official final score. The rules state that if the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market 'will remain open and resolve based on the official final result.'
Does not count.
- Indiana wins by 9 points or fewer
- Indiana ties or loses
- The game is postponed and not started within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start time (resolves to fair price instead of Yes/No)
Deadline. Originally scheduled start time on Sep 25, 2026; if not started within 48 hours after that start time, the market resolves to a fair price.
- Indiana wins by more than 9.5 points — Indiana's final score minus Northwestern's final score is greater than 9.5, meaning at least 10 points, since football scores are integers.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the
condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
Indiana 29, Northwestern 23 on September 25, 2026
Multiple credible sources report the final score as Indiana 29, Northwestern 23, which is a 6-point margin, not exceeding 9.5 points.
Sources it was read from · 4 cited
IU football: Three quick reasons the Hoosiers beat Northwestern, highlights, stats ↗
https://thedailyhoosier.com/iu-football-three-quick-reasons-the-hoosiers-beat-northwestern-highlights-stats · 2026-09-26
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Indiana beat Northwestern by a final score of 29-23 on Saturday night at Memorial Stadium. Below are three quick reasons why the Hoosiers won, along with highlights and final stats. Indiana (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) hits the road for the first time this season next week at Rutgers. —————————————————— Three quick reasons [...]
IU football passes its first real test of 2026 season with a win over Northwestern ↗
https://insidethehall.com/2026/09/26/iu-football-passes-its-first-real-test-of-2026-season-with-a-win-over-northwestern · 2026-09-26
Throughout Indiana’s 29-23 win against Northwestern on Friday, a growing sense of angst was palpable inside Merchants Bank Field at Memorial Stadium. Indiana did not look like its usual self. Penalties, missed throws and defensive failures piled up. Missed opportunities ... The post IU football passes its first real test of 2026 season with a win over Northwestern appeared first on Inside the Hall | Indiana Hoosiers Basketball News, Recruiting and Analysis .
Curt Cignetti drops insane "Pearl Harbor" line after Indiana squeaks by Northwestern ↗
https://nytimespost.com/curt-cignetti-drops-insane-pearl-harbor-line-after-indiana-squeaks-by-northwestern · 2026-09-26
Defending champion Indiana survived a scare Friday night against Northwestern, eking out a 29-23 win in the 2026 Big Ten opener. The Hoosiers were nearly three touchdown favorites most of the week, but that never came close to hitting. In fact, for most of the first quarter, Indiana led Northwestern by a robust score of [...]
Highlights: Indiana 29 - Northwestern 23 - 9/25/26 ↗
https://wgnradio.com/northwestern/northwestern-football/highlights-indiana-29-northwestern-23-9-25-26 · 2026-09-26
Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana Hoosiers - September 25, 2026 Box score | Recap Video highlights
4 retrieved but not cited
Northwestern Indiana Football ↗
Indiana wide receiver Charlie Becker (80) dives for a pass just out of his reach in the end zone during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Northwestern, Friday, Sept. 25, 2026, in Bloomington, Ind.
Adjudicated 17d ago · retrieval: newsrag.
This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named
authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.