← Decided
Rice vs Fresno St.: Spread — Fresno St. wins by over 12.5 points
kalshi · open the market ↗
· closes 2026-09-29T02:00 · claim page
already yes
high confidence
buy YES
price moved
8 → 90
in the last 48h
bid 0.900 / ask 0.910
9.0c residual
Was there ever a window?
The evidence appeared before the market moved.
the evidence appeared before the market moved.
- Price reached near-certainty:
16d ago
- Earliest cited source published:
2026-09-27T01:24:55
- Price as shown:
not current — the venue is not quoting a live offer.
The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Fresno St. wins the Rice vs Fresno St. college football game originally scheduled for Sep 26, 2026 by more than 12.5 points (i.e., by 13 or more points), based on the official final result if the game begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time.
Form the evidence must take. Official final result of the game. The rules state that if the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will 'resolve based on the official final result.' No specific publisher or medium is named for the official final result.
Does not count.
- Fresno St. wins by 12 or fewer points
- Rice wins
- Fresno St. wins by exactly 12.5 points (impossible under standard scoring, but any margin of 12 or less is a No)
- Game is not started within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start time (resolves to fair price, not Yes/No)
Deadline. Originally scheduled for Sep 26, 2026; if postponed, the game must begin within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, otherwise the market resolves to a fair price.
- wins by more than 12.5 points — Fresno St. must win by a margin greater than 12.5 points, meaning by at least 13 points.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the
condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
Fresno State defeated Rice 38-24 on September 26/27, 2026, a margin of 14 points.
The reported final score is Fresno State 38, Rice 24, a 14-point Fresno State win, which exceeds the required 12.5-point spread. The game was played as scheduled on Saturday night, so the 48-hour start condition is satisfied.
Sources it was read from · 6 cited
Game recap: Fresno State beats Rice 38-24 in its final nonconference game of the season ↗
https://fscollegian.com/2026/09/live-updates-fresno-state-hosts-rice-in-its-final-nonconference-game-of-the-season · 2026-09-27
Fresno State football is set to face the Rice University Owls at Valley Children’s Stadium. The ‘Dogs enter Week 4 at 2-1 after beating San Jose State for the Valley Trophy, 26-10, in Week 3. The Owls enter this week with a 1-2 record, coming off their first win of the season against Houston Christian...
GREG VACEK'S WEB ROUNDUPSunday, September 27, 2026 ↗
https://bonesville.net/2026/09/27/sunday-september-27-2026 · 2026-09-27
ECU Defeats N.C. Central On Saturday, 42-9… Rice Falls To Fresno State, 38-24… NC State hold off App State comeback to earn home victory Pirate Press: ECU Headlines Williams delivers in passing game as Pirates pull away ECU Defeats N.C. Central On Saturday, 42-9 ecupirates.com East Carolina scores 6 TDs in first half to cruise… [ More... ]
Jayden Mandal, Rayshon Luke lead Fresno State to 38-24 victory over Rice ↗
https://therecord.com/sports/football/jayden-mandal-rayshon-luke-lead-fresno-state-to-38-24-victory-over-rice/article_57c41d3a-d82c-5dde-a727-6985730615fe.html · 2026-09-27
FRESNO, Calif. (AP) — Jayden Mandal threw three touchdown passes and Rayshon Luke rushed for 167 yards and a score to lead Fresno State to a 38-24 victory over Rice on Saturday night.
Fresno State closes nonconference play with 38-24 win over Rice ↗
https://fscollegian.com/2026/09/fresno-state-closes-nonconference-play-with-38-24-win-over-rice · 2026-09-27
The Fresno State Bulldogs came out on top against the Rice University Owls, defeating them 38-24 and improving to 3-1 on the season heading into conference play. The Bulldogs’ offense’s ground attack produced all night long, rushing for 251 yards and one touchdown. Rayshon Luke was responsible for most of the damage, totaling 11 carries...
Bulldog Stock Market: Who’s rising and falling after Rice University? ↗
https://fscollegian.com/2026/09/bulldog-stock-market-whos-rising-and-falling-after-rice-university · 2026-09-27
After a slow start against the Rice Owls, the Fresno State Bulldogs took full control of Saturday night’s matchup at Valley Children’s Stadium. The Bulldogs successfully beat the Owls with a 38-24 lead and have now officially moved to a 3-1 overall record on the season. Fresno State entered the night looking to build on...
2 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 15d ago · retrieval: newsrag.
This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named
authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.