OpenAI market share this week — Above 18.1%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-05T14:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 12d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. OpenAI's market share on OpenRouter's text market share chart for the week of September 28, 2026, as reported at 10:00 AM ET on the following Monday, is above 18.1% after rounding to one decimal place.
Named authority. OpenRouter
Form the evidence must take. The market share values must be reported by OpenRouter in their official chart, specifically the 'OpenRouter text market share by model author' chart for the week of Sep 28, 2026, updated at 10:00AM ET Monday. The rules state: 'based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Sep 28, 2026.'
Does not count.
- OpenAI's market share is not separately identified in the source chart (e.g., included in 'Others') – resolves No.
- The reported value is exactly 18.1% or below after rounding – resolves No.
- Any value reported after the 10:00 AM ET Monday deadline – does not count.
Deadline. 2026-10-05T10:00:00-04:00 (10:00 AM ET Monday after the week of Sep 28, 2026)
- OpenRouter text market share by model author — The percentage of text model usage attributed to each model author (e.g., OpenAI) as shown on OpenRouter's chart.
- above 18.1% — Strictly greater than 18.1% after rounding to one decimal place (e.g., 18.2% or higher).
- separately identified — The model author (OpenAI) must appear as its own entry in the chart, not grouped under 'Others'.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
No source establishes OpenAI's OpenRouter text market share for the week of September 28, 2026, and the official OpenRouter chart has not been produced. The only specific percentage in the evidence is for a model (Space Bunny Alpha at 18.23%), not for OpenAI as a model author, and it is not from OpenRouter's official chart.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require OpenRouter's official 'text market share by model author' chart for the week of Sep 28, 2026, updated at 10:00 AM ET Monday, to show OpenAI separately above 18.1%. The supplied sources do not show that chart or any official OpenRouter-reported OpenAI market share figure for that week.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
OpenRouter's official 'OpenRouter text market share by model author' chart for the week of Sep 28, 2026, updated at 10:00 AM ET on Monday Oct 5, 2026, showing OpenAI as a separately identified author with a share strictly above 18.1% after rounding to one decimal place.
Sources it was read from · 2 cited
6 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 9d ago · retrieval: pg search. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.