OpenAI market share this week — Above 18.4%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-12T14:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 2d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. OpenAI scores above 18.4% on OpenRouter text market share by model author for the week of Oct 5, 2026, based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place.
Named authority. OpenRouter
Form the evidence must take. OpenRouter's 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Oct 5, 2026, must show OpenAI above 18.4% and separately identified in the source chart. The rules state resolution is based on '10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Oct 5, 2026.'
Does not count.
- OpenAI not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in 'Others'
- A value below or equal to 18.4% after rounding
- Values reported at a different time than the 10:00AM ET Monday update
- Market share values for any week other than the week of Oct 5, 2026
Deadline. 2026-10-05T10:00:00-04:00
- above 18.4% — greater than 18.4% after rounding to one decimal place (i.e., at least 18.5%)
- OpenRouter text market share by model author — the market share value OpenRouter reports for text models grouped by model author, not overall traffic or non-text categories
The venue's own resolution text, verbatim
If OpenAI scores above 18.4% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Oct 5, 2026. If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
What the sources establish
No evidence provides OpenRouter's official Monday 10:00AM ET market share report for the week of Oct 5, 2026, showing OpenAI's text market share by model author rounded to one decimal place. The existing sources discuss other metrics or general trends, not the exact resolution condition.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require OpenRouter's 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values for the week of Oct 5, 2026, with OpenAI separately identified and the value rounded to one decimal place. None of the provided sources show such a report from OpenRouter. The sources discuss AI market share in general or business spending through OpenRouter, but not the specific form required.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
OpenRouter's published market share values for the week of Oct 5, 2026, updated at 10:00AM ET on Monday Oct 5, 2026, showing OpenAI's text market share by model author above 18.4% (i.e., at least 18.5% after rounding to one decimal place).
Sources it was read from
8 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 2d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.