Where will it rain on Oct 8, 2026? — Miami
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-09T05:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. we have no price history for this contract, so we cannot say whether the market moved before or after the evidence appeared.
- Price reached near-certainty: not recorded — we hold no price history for this contract, which is itself the reason the question cannot be answered
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami on Oct 8, 2026, as reported by the Weather Company, is strictly greater than 0 inches.
Named authority. Weather Company
Form the evidence must take. The Weather Company’s official and final value for total precipitation at CLIMIA on Oct 8, 2026, as reported at https://weather.com/kalshi. The rules state: 'the official and final value used to determine this market as reported by the Weather Company.' Trace amounts (T) and missing daily precipitation values are counted as 0 inches.
Does not count.
- Precipitation at locations other than CLIMIA in Miami
- Precipitation on dates other than Oct 8, 2026
- Trace amounts (T) counted as 0 inches
- Missing daily precipitation values counted as 0 inches
- Readings from AccuWeather or Google Weather if they differ from the Weather Company’s official value
Deadline. Oct 8, 2026
- total precipitation — The amount of precipitation recorded at CLIMIA in Miami on Oct 8, 2026.
- Trace amounts (T) — Counted as 0 inches.
- missing daily precipitation values — Counted as 0 inches.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
No evidence from the Weather Company (the named authority) is present in the sources. All provided documents are unrelated to the required measurement or are forecasts and news articles that do not constitute the official final value.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require the Weather Company's official and final total precipitation value at CLIMIA in Miami on Oct 8, 2026, as reported at https://weather.com/kalshi. No source provides that specific measurement.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A measurement from the Weather Company at https://weather.com/kalshi showing the total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami on Oct 8, 2026, either >0 inches or =0 inches.
Sources it was read from
8 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 5d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.