Where will it rain on Oct 9, 2026? — New Orleans
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-10T06:00 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. we have no price history for this contract, so we cannot say whether the market moved before or after the evidence appeared.
- Price reached near-certainty: not recorded — we hold no price history for this contract, which is itself the reason the question cannot be answered
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-10-07T17:30:59
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Total precipitation at CLIMSY in New Orleans on October 9, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches.
Named authority. The Weather Company
Form the evidence must take. The official and final value as reported by the Weather Company, accessible at https://weather.com/kalshi. Trace amounts (T) and missing daily precipitation values are counted as 0 inches.
Does not count.
- Precipitation data from sources other than the Weather Company's official report for CLIMSY.
- Precipitation equal to 0 inches or trace (T) or missing values.
Deadline. 2026-10-09
- CLIMSY — A specific weather station identifier for New Orleans used by the Weather Company.
- Trace amounts (T) — Counted as 0 inches.
- Missing daily precipitation values — Counted as 0 inches.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
No source establishes the actual official precipitation measurement at CLIMSY in New Orleans on October 9, 2026; the evidence only indicates forecasts of possible storms or rain, which does not settle the contract.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require the official and final daily precipitation value for CLIMSY as reported by the Weather Company at weather.com/kalshi. The supplied sources are forecasts, zone forecasts, and news articles about expected weather; none provide the Weather Company's official measured precipitation total for CLIMSY on October 9, 2026.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
The Weather Company's official report at weather.com/kalshi for CLIMSY on October 9, 2026 showing total precipitation strictly greater than 0 inches (or, for a no resolution, showing 0.00, trace, or missing counted as 0).
Sources it was read from · 2 cited
6 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 4d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.