Who will speak at the 2026 Republican Midterm Convention? — John Thune
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-12T03:59 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. we have no price history for this contract, so we cannot say whether the market moved before or after the evidence appeared.
- Price reached near-certainty: not recorded — we hold no price history for this contract, which is itself the reason the question cannot be answered
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-09-06T19:46:52
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. John Thune personally delivers attributable spoken remarks as part of official programming at the 2026 Republican Midterm Convention at American Airlines Center on September 9 or 10, 2026, and that fact is confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency.
Named authority. Source Agency (as referenced by the rules; no specific agency named in the provided text)
Form the evidence must take. Confirmation, verification, or establishment as factual by at least one Source Agency. The rules require that Thune personally deliver attributable spoken remarks as part of official Republican Midterm Convention programming at American Airlines Center on September 9 or 10, 2026; qualifying forms include live podium remarks, an official panel, an introduction, an in-program interview or moderated discussion, and an official prerecorded speech segment. A report that a person is expected or scheduled to speak does not by itself confirm that the person has spoken.
Deadline. September 9 or 10, 2026 (official convention programming at American
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
As of September 6-7, 2026, the RNC released the Dallas convention speaker lineup and multiple outlets reported Thune is not on it and will not be speaking; the convention itself has not yet occurred, with programming scheduled September 9-10.
The condition concerns actual delivery of remarks during convention programming on September 9-10, 2026, but the evidence is from before the convention and only establishes that Thune was not on the announced speaker list. A report that someone is not scheduled to speak is not the same as a Source Agency establishing after the event that he did not speak.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require a Source Agency to establish that Thune personally delivered attributable spoken remarks in official convention programming on September 9 or 10, or to establish the opposite after those dates. The current sources only report the advance speaker list and planned activities; they do not provide a post-event Source Agency confirmation of whether Thune actually spoke.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A Source Agency report after the convention, based on the September 9-10 official programming at American Airlines Center, stating that John Thune either did or did not personally deliver attributable remarks as part of the 2026 Republican Midterm Convention.
Sources it was read from · 2 cited
5 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 36d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.