polyrag

← Decided

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (8/31 - 9/6) — Above 280

kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-08T13:00 · claim page

undecided high confidence not the named source buy YES price moved 18 → 95 in the last 48h bid 0.950 / ask 0.990 1.0c residual

Was there ever a window?

Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.

What the contract requires

Condition. The sum of daily transit calls through the Suez Canal as reported by IMF PortWatch from Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 6, 2026 is above 280.

Named authority. IMF PortWatch

Form the evidence must take. The number must be reported by IMF PortWatch as daily transit calls through the Suez Canal, summed for Aug 31, 2026 through Sep 6, 2026; the rules state 'as reported by the IMF PortWatch' and 'The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Aug 31, 2026 to Sep 6, 2026.'

Does not count.

Deadline. Sep 6, 2026 (period end); resolution no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available

This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.

What the sources establish

No evidence from the required authority (IMF PortWatch) or any source reports the weekly transit call total for the Suez Canal for the specified dates.

The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. Rules require the sum of daily transit calls through the Suez Canal as reported by IMF PortWatch from Aug 31 to Sep 6, 2026. None of the provided sources contain any data from IMF PortWatch or any transit call counts for that period.

The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.

The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.

A report from IMF PortWatch showing the sum of daily transit calls from Aug 31 to Sep 6, 2026, whether above 280 or not.

Sources it was read from

8 retrieved but not cited
Five Key Stories: 8/31/26 – 9/6/26 ↗
A rundown of the top stories around the NHL from August 31-September 6, 2026.
WILMINGTON POLICE LOG for August 31, 2026 & September 1, 2026 ↗
Read highlights from the August 31 and September 1 police logs.
Best Of Londonist: 31 August-6 September 2026 ↗
Catch up on what you missed this week.
Summary of Week 36 – August 31-September 4, 2026 ↗
Top News September 4 – HPE: Fiscal 3Q26 Financial Results September 3 – Dell Technologies: Fiscal 2Q27 Financial Results September 2 – QSAN Debuts on Taiwan’s Emerging Stock Board, Accelerating Its Enterprise AI Strategy September 1 – Summary of August 2026 August 31 – Summary of Week 35 – August 24
Transformers News of the Week : August 31 - September 6, 2026 ↗
See more at https://tformers.com/57393
No Plans to Exchange or Transfer Ownership of Suez Canal ↗
An Egyptian businessman proposed the transfer of ownership of several state-owned assets, including the Suez Canal, to the Central Bank of Egypt to settle the government’s domestic debt. The local media has described this as the ‘Great Swap’.
The Red Sea reopens, Hormuz stays shut — and the cost of the crisis holds ↗
The Red Sea had been shunned since late 2023; a tentative return this February collapsed within weeks, just as the Strait of Hormuz closed for the first time in the US–Israel war on Iran. In the first week of July the two chokepoints diverged again — Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd moved a service back throu
Tankers: VLCC Market Trending Higher ↗
Clean LR2 The TC1 75kt MEG/Japan held flat this week with the index published around the WS565-568 level. A voyage west also remained steady with the TC20 90kt MEG/UK-Continent index climbing a modest by $34,300 to $9.38 million. West of the Suez Canal, the TC15 80kt Mediterranean/East index added a

Adjudicated 36d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.