Tencent market share this week — Above 6.8%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-14T03:59 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 33d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Tencent's market share as a model author on OpenRouter's text market share by model author chart for the week of Sep 8, 2026, as updated at 10:00 AM ET on the following Monday, is strictly above 6.8%.
Named authority. OpenRouter's text market share by model author chart
Form the evidence must take. The official OpenRouter text market share by model author chart published at the stated update time, showing Tencent's share as a separate entry (not grouped in 'Others'). The rules state: 'resolved based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated values for the week of Sep 8, 2026' and that the chart is the source.
Does not count.
- If Tencent is not separately identified in the chart (i.e., included in 'Others'), the market resolves to No.
- If Tencent's share is exactly 6.8% (not above), it resolves to No.
Deadline. Monday following the week of Sep 8, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET (exact date depends on calendar; Sep 8, 2026 is a Tuesday, so the Monday after the week ending Sunday Sep 13, 2026 would be Sep 14, 2026)
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
No evidence addresses Tencent's market share on OpenRouter's chart. All sources are unrelated to the resolution condition.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require the official OpenRouter text market share by model author chart published at 10:00 AM ET on Monday following the week of Sep 8, 2026. None of the provided sources are from OpenRouter or show that chart.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
The official OpenRouter text market share by model author chart for the week of Sep 8, 2026, updated at 10:00 AM ET on Sep 14, 2026, showing Tencent's share strictly above 6.8% (or showing Tencent not separately listed, or exactly 6.8%, which would resolve to No).
Sources it was read from
8 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 32d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.