Tencent market share this week — Above 5.6%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-09-21T03:59 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
The evidence appeared before the market moved. the evidence appeared before the market moved.
- Price reached near-certainty: 24d ago
- Earliest cited source published: 2026-09-15T21:35:01
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Tencent's market share on OpenRouter text market share by model author for the week of Sep 14, 2026 is above 5.6% as shown in the source chart.
Named authority. OpenRouter
Form the evidence must take. The OpenRouter website's published chart for 'text market share by model author' for the week of Sep 14, 2026, updated at 10:00AM ET on the Monday following that week, must show Tencent as a separately identified entity with a share above 5.6%. The rules state: 'resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated values for the week of Sep 14, 2026' and 'If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No.'
Does not count.
- Tencent's market share is not separately identified in the source chart (e.g., it is included in 'Others')
- Tencent's market share is exactly 5.6% (must be above)
Deadline. 2026-09-21T10:00:00-04:00
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
No evidence from the named authority (OpenRouter) or any source establishes Tencent's market share above 5.6% in the required chart. The deadline for the chart's publication has not yet passed (10:00AM ET on Sep 21, 2026 vs. current time Sep 19, 2026).
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require the OpenRouter website's published chart for 'text market share by model author' for the week of Sep 14, 2026, updated at 10:00AM ET on Monday Sep 21, 2026. None of the provided sources show such a chart, nor any data from OpenRouter about Tencent's market share for that week.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
The OpenRouter website's published chart for 'text market share by model author' for the week of Sep 14, 2026, updated at 10:00AM ET on Sep 21, 2026, showing Tencent as a separately identified entity with a share above 5.6%.
Sources it was read from · 1 cited
7 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 24d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.