polyrag

← Decided

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 2, 2026? — Below 38.5%

kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-02T16:59 · claim page

undecided high confidence not the named source buy YES price moved 56 → 91 in the last 48h bid 0.910 / ask 0.930 7.0c residual

Was there ever a window?

Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.

What the contract requires

Condition. The value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on RealClearPolitics is below 38.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on October 2, 2026.

Named authority. RealClearPolitics (RCP) - the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval'

Form the evidence must take. The value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on the RealClearPolitics website, as it appears at exactly 1:00 PM ET on October 2, 2026. The rules state: 'The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.'

Does not count.

Deadline. 2026-10-02T13:00:00-04:00 (1:00 PM ET on Oct 2, 2026)

This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.

What the sources establish

The deadline is still several hours away (1:00 PM ET is later than the current time), and none of the evidence comes from RealClearPolitics or shows the RCP average at that specific time.

The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require the value from the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row in the 'President Trump Job Approval' table on RealClearPolitics at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 2, 2026. None of the provided sources show that table or its value.

The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.

The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.

A screenshot or direct link to the RealClearPolitics table showing the 'Approve' value in the 'RCP Average' row as it appeared at 1:00 PM ET on Oct 2, 2026.

Sources it was read from

8 retrieved but not cited
Trump Approval at Just 31% ↗
A new Associated Press/NORC poll finds Donald Trump’s approval at 31%, while 69% disapprove. Trump Approval Approve 31% Disapprove 69% Associated Press/NORC poll · adults · ±2.9%
“Smart people don’t like me.” ↗
A Reuters/Ipsos poll published September 21, 2026 put Trump's approval rating at 32 percent, the lowest Reuters/Ipsos had recorded for him. His approval among Republicans had fallen from 82 percent to 73 percent in one week. In the same poll, Democrats held an eight-point advantage over Republicans
Trump’s job approval AMONG TRUMP VOTERS has dropped 18 points to just 75%. ↗
This alone is why Republicans are fucked in the midterms. Anything below 90% at the absolute worst is a death blow YouGov’s September 21, 2026 poll shows Donald Trump’s job approval among 2024 Trump voters at 75% approve and 22% disapprove, marking an 18-point drop in approval and 17-point rise in d
Trump says he has done a 'bad job' explaining his economic record ↗
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he has done "a very bad job" of ‌explaining his economic record as his job approval rating sags under the weight…
Trump’s Approval Rating At All-Time Low, Q Poll Says ↗
Thirty-four percent of voters approve of the way President Donald Trump is handling his job, while 61% disapprove, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday.
Donald Trump says His Low Polling Numbers are ‘Fake’….. ↗
Overall, just 31% of people said they approve of Trump’s handling of his job as president.....But when asked about his low approval rating during his interview with Time, Trump dismissed concerns.....“They’re fake numbers,” Trump said
Trump approval slips to historic low in Wall Street Journal survey ↗
President Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a record low in Wall Street Journal polling for a president only a few weeks out from the midterms. In the new poll from the Journal, Trump’s approval rating sat at 37 percent, the lowest of a president shortly before a midterm in the outlet’s polling
David Muir reports on Donald Trump's 'record low' poll numbers ahead of midterms ↗
David Muir spent a segment on his World News Tonight on Thursday, October 1, addressing President Donald Trump's low approval rating as the 2026 midterm election gets closer

Adjudicated 11d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.