Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 5, 2026? — 38.5%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-05T16:59 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 8d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. The value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row in the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on RealClearPolitics is exactly 38.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on October 5, 2026.
Named authority. RealClearPolitics (RCP) - the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval'
Form the evidence must take. The sole resolution source is the value displayed in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row of the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on the RealClearPolitics website at exactly 1:00 PM ET on October 5, 2026. No other source or interpretation is acceptable.
Does not count.
- Any value from a different table, different row, different column, or different time.
- Any value from a different polling average or source (e.g., FiveThirtyEight, Gallup).
- Any value that is not exactly 38.5% (e.g., 38.4% or 38.6%).
- Any value observed before or after 1:00 PM ET on Oct 5, 2026.
Deadline. 2026-10-05T13:00:00-04:00 (1:00 PM ET on Oct 5, 2026)
- RCP approval average — The value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row in the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on RealClearPolitics.
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
The deadline has passed but no evidence shows the RCP website's exact value at the required time; vague reports from other sources do not satisfy the sole resolution source.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The contract requires the exact value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row in the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval' on RealClearPolitics at exactly 1:00 PM ET on October 5, 2026. No evidence provides a timestamped snapshot of that specific table cell from that source at that time.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A direct, timestamped screenshot or archived page from RealClearPolitics showing the 'President Trump Job Approval' table with the 'RCP Average' row 'Approve' column value exactly 38.5% as of 1:00 PM ET on October 5, 2026.
Sources it was read from
8 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 8d ago · retrieval: newsrag, pg search. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.