Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 6, 2026? — 38.5%
kalshi · open the market ↗ · closes 2026-10-06T16:59 · claim page
Was there ever a window?
Unknown. the cited sources carry no publication date.
- Price reached near-certainty: 7d ago
- Earliest cited source published: undated
- Price as shown: not current — not adjudicated. The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Condition. Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on October 6, 2026.
Named authority. RealClearPolitics (RCP) - 'President Trump Job Approval' table
Form the evidence must take. The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row in the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" on the RealClearPolitics website, as it appears at exactly 1:00 PM ET on October 6, 2026.
Does not count.
- Any value from a source other than the specified RCP table
- Any value not from the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row
- Any value recorded at a time other than exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 6, 2026
- Any rounding or approximation that does not equal exactly 38.5%
Deadline. 2026-10-06T13:00:00-04:00
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
No provided source comes from RealClearPolitics or displays the RCP approval average at the required time and date.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires. The rules require the value from the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row in the RealClearPolitics 'President Trump Job Approval' table at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 6, 2026. No source in evidence is from RealClearPolitics or shows that table.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that alone.
The named authority has not established this. The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A direct capture from RealClearPolitics showing the 'President Trump Job Approval' table with the 'RCP Average' row's 'Approve' value at exactly 1:00 PM ET on October 6, 2026.
Sources it was read from
7 retrieved but not cited
Adjudicated 7d ago · retrieval: newsrag. This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.