← Decided
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 7, 2026? — 38.4%
kalshi · open the market ↗
· closes 2026-10-07T16:59 · claim page
undecided
high confidence
not the named source
buy YES
price moved
5 → 96
in the last 48h
bid 0.960 / ask 0.970
3.0c residual
Was there ever a window?
The evidence appeared before the market moved.
the evidence appeared before the market moved.
- Price reached near-certainty:
6d ago
- Earliest cited source published:
2026-10-01T14:40:41
- Price as shown:
not current — not adjudicated.
The residual below is from the last sweep and may have closed since.
What the contract requires
Form the evidence must take. The value in the
This venue published no resolution text for this contract, so the
condition above is inferred from the question alone.
What the sources establish
Multiple polls in early October 2026 report Trump approval ratings between 31% and 38% (Reuters/Ipsos 32%, AP-NORC 31%, Marquette 38%), but none is the RCP Average.
No evidence provided shows the RealClearPolitics RCP Average figure, and the current time is before the specified 1:00 PM ET moment. Individual poll numbers cannot establish the RCP Average.
The evidence is not in the form this contract requires.
The rules require the exact value in the 'Approve' column of the 'RCP Average' row in the 'President Trump Job Approval' table on RealClearPolitics at 1:00 PM ET on Oct 7, 2026. The sources only report individual poll results, not the RCP Average table value.
The event may well have happened. This contract does not resolve on that
alone.
The named authority has not established this.
The sources below report the event; the contract resolves on what its named source says.
A direct capture or official RealClearPolitics page showing the 'President Trump Job Approval' table with the 'RCP Average' row's 'Approve' value exactly 38.4% at 1:00 PM ET on Oct 7, 2026.
Sources it was read from · 7 cited
Trump Approval Stuck at 32% ↗
https://politicalwire.com/2026/10/05/trump-approval-stuck-at-32 · 2026-10-05
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds President Donald Trump’s approval at 32%, while 65% disapprove. Trump Approval Approve 32% Disapprove 65% Reuters/Ipsos poll · adults
Trump Approval at 36% ↗
https://politicalwire.com/2026/10/05/trump-approval-at-36 · 2026-10-05
A new Winston Group (R)/Winning the Issues poll finds President Trump’s approval at 36%, while 60% disapprove. Trump Approval Approve 36% Disapprove 60% Winston Group/Winning the Issues poll · registered voters
Trump approval rating mired at record low: Poll ↗
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6131134-donald-trump-approval-rating-record-low-stuck-survey · 2026-10-06
President Trump maintained his record low approval rating in a survey released Monday, as Republicans push to ramp up support for their party’s candidates with about four weeks until the midterms. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found the president’s approval held steady at the 32 percent rating from the polling center’s survey the previous month. Trump’s waning…
Trump approval rating hits new career low in latest AP-NORC poll ↗
https://philpostblog.wordpress.com/2026/10/03/trump-approval-rating-hits-new-career-low-in-latest-ap-norc-poll · 2026-10-03
President Donald Trump’s approval rating hit a new career low in Associated Press-NORC polling, with less than one-third of surveyed Americans approving of his job performance in the White House. The poll, released Thursday, Oct. 1, found Trump’s approval rating at 31%, the lowest the president has seen in either of his two terms. Trump’s […]
Wonder why there’s going to be a blue wave? ↗
https://investmentwatchblog.com/democratic-wave-is-hitting-republican-states-hardest-scrambling-senate-strategy · 2026-10-01
New AP poll: Trump’s job approval rating falls to 31%, while 69% disapprove. • His approval rating on the economy: 26% • On the cost of living: 17%• On Iran: 28%• Trade negotiations: 38%• AI: 31%• Immigration: 39%• Border security: 48%https://t.co/XtHuyb8BYK pic.twitter.com/ltyLXsnlCY — Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 1, 2026 AP/NORC poll | 9/24-9/28 President Trump ... Read more The post Wonder why there’s going to be a blue wave? appeared first on Investment Watch Blog .
1 retrieved but not cited
Chester Select Board agenda for Oct. 7 ↗
The Chester Select Board will hold its regular meeting at 6:30 p.m. on Wednesday Oct. 7 at Town Hall, 556 Elm Street and remotely via Zoom. Below is the board’s agenda: 1. Approval of Minutes of September 16, 2026 Selectboard Meeting 2. Citizen’s Comments 3. Old Business 4. Update on Recent Festival
Adjudicated 6d ago · retrieval: newsrag.
This is a reading of retrieved documents by a language model, not a settlement. The venue's named
authority is the only thing that resolves a market, and it is often slower than the news.